972
FXUS64 KOHX 201659
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1159 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Not much change here from previous forecast reasoning and previous
issuances of early morning suite of forecast products with dry
conditions due to ridging influences still "As far as the eye can
see" prevailing across mid state region through Saturday
afternoon. Let`s visit the meaning of the slogan "Wash, Rinse,
Repeat" for both highs for this afternoon and Saturday afternoon,
or if you prefer, the term "Carbon Copy." Highs today and Saturday
both will range in low to mid 90s, upper 80s to around 90 for
locations west of Cumberland Plateau Region. With forecasted
slightly warmer afternoon humidity values, especially on Saturday
afternoon, some isolated locations west of Cumberland Plateau
Region could approach heat index value wise around 100 degrees.
Lows tonight will continue the seasonably mild trend of late and
potentially be a little warmer than those even experienced this
morning, ranging thru the 60s. With strong upper level ridging
influences in place along with forecasted little cloudiness, not
much wind, and favorable dewpoint depressions, strong indications
that patchy fog formation will once again occur, mainly for
locations around and west of I-65 Corridor Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1158 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The continuation of dominance in atmospheric ridging influences
will continue lows and highs along with patchy fog chances in
similar categories and locations both Saturday Night and Sunday
Night with highs almost identical to those experienced today and
Saturday once again on Sunday. After Monday with highs slightly
cooler ranging upper 80s to lower 90s, mid 80s Cumberland Plateau
Region, a more of an unsettled weather pattern will come in play
as next work week progresses with generally isolated/scattered
showers and potentially thunderstorms also. Total rainfall amounts
continue to look light, generally less than 0.50." Temperatures
will slowly cool down closer to seasonal values as second half of
next work week progresses. As for Friday, latest GFS solution has
"a quite interesting" weather pattern depicted across eastern
half of CONUS as Friday progresses. Actual right model solution
quandaries in abundance with this double closed surface/upper
level stacked low pressure centers depicted in weather pattern
across eastern CONUS in this present GFS model run. So I believe
best thing here is to let some additional GFS and ECMWF model runs
occur before diving into some consistency of an agreed upon
weather pattern across eastern CONUS late next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail today. Some patchy fog tried to
develop early this morning causing some periods of IFR, but has
since dissipated. Some remaining fog can be expected in low lying
areas this morning but should dissipate by 13z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  71  94  71 /   0   0  10  10
Clarksville    93  70  93  69 /   0  10  10  10
Crossville     87  61  88  62 /   0   0  10   0
Columbia       93  67  93  67 /   0   0  10   0
Cookeville     88  65  89  65 /   0   0  10   0
Jamestown      87  64  88  64 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   92  66  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   93  68  94  68 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        91  68  91  68 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Cravens