Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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483 FXUS64 KOHX 150730 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 230 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Warm conditions once again across the mid state this morning. Temperatures are in the 70s, upper 60s Plateau. Patchy fog will be possible as we approach sunrise. Surface high over Lake Michigan will give us a light easterly/northeasterly flow for today. At the same time , however, an upper high will begin strengthening across the deep south. This feature will continue to strengthen as it moves to our east. A more uniform southerly flow will set up on Sunday and Monday with additional humidity expected. This will result in a returning chance of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Pops still look rather low with perhaps some 40% values on Monday. Best coverage appears to be across our west given that that area will be furthest from the upper high. The more important story will be the heat. The high will reach the Carolinas on Monday. Westward thermal extension will be in place, and with 850 mb temps in the 19-21C range we will continue to see highs in the mid to upper 90s. Sunday looks like the hottest day with 97F expected at BNA. The one Savior will be that dewpoints should remain in the mid to upper 60s. This should temper the heat index just enough to keep us out of any advisory requirements. As always though, we will need to play particular attention to areas along the TN river. Across that area, heat index values of 100-104F cannot be ruled out for Sunday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 For the extended forecast, the upper high will reach the New York/New Jersey area on Tuesday. Ridging will extend southwestward toward our area and build with time. A moisture undercut will be possible, especially just west of Tennessee. NBM numbers just show 10 pops so it`s unlikely that precip inclusion will occur in the extended. But, that hot weather is going to continue. Look for mid 90s for highs through the period. Overnight lows will generally be in the 70-75F range. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Upper ridging influences will keep all sites VFR this period, with the exception of some possible light fog development this morning at CSV and SRB. It`s not a guarantee, but with calm winds and mostly clear skies it`s not out of the question. Winds will be light and out of the northeast today. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 70 97 75 / 0 0 20 10 Clarksville 92 67 96 73 / 0 0 20 10 Crossville 88 64 89 69 / 0 0 20 10 Columbia 95 69 97 72 / 0 0 20 10 Cookeville 88 68 92 72 / 0 0 20 10 Jamestown 87 64 91 70 / 0 0 20 10 Lawrenceburg 94 69 96 72 / 0 0 20 10 Murfreesboro 95 69 97 74 / 0 0 20 10 Waverly 93 69 96 73 / 0 0 20 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Whitehead