413
FXUS64 KOHX 160502
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1202 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through tonight)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The band of showers (Francine remnants) that was focused over our
southwest counties the past couple of days has shifted farther
southwest today as dry air has pushed in from the north and east.
Still, there will be just enough moisture and instability for a
few showers or brief thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening for areas along and southwest of I-24. Any storm impacts
should be brief with coverage mostly in the 20 to 30 percent
range. Otherwise the rest of the day will be partly to mostly
sunny with warm temperatures in the 80s.

Any showers or isolated storms will dissipate quickly this
evening. Late night may bring some patchy fog as most areas dip to
the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The rest of this week looks dry with pleasant nights and warm
days. A strong ridge over the Great Lakes and New England will
push dry and stable air into the area for the start of the week.
Later in the week, another ridge from our southwest will spread
across the region. This pattern will block us off from any
significant wet weather systems. One of those systems will be a
low pressure system along the east coast that could become a
tropical low. Most models keep the impacts form this system out
of our area. The GFS tracks more to the west, but the GFS is
considered an outlier. Even with a western drift, odds are very
low for any meaningful rainfall in our coverage area. At this
point, we do have some 10-20 percent shower chances along the
Plateau midweek. Otherwise, dry through the week.

Clear nights and mostly sunny days will be in the forecast across
Middle Tennessee this week. Dry air will allow temps to drop to
comfortable levels at night with near normal lows. A few patches
of shallow fog will be possible each night, mainly along lakes
and rivers and in valleys. The sunny days will be warm with highs
running a few degrees above normal throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Patchy fog is
possible at KSRB tonight, but confidence wasn`t high enough to
include in 06Z TAF. Otherwise, just high clouds streaming across
the area with east to northeast winds at 10 knots or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      89  62  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    88  59  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     83  55  77  57 /   0  10  10  10
Columbia       88  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     84  57  78  60 /   0   0  10   0
Jamestown      82  57  75  59 /   0  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   87  59  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   89  60  85  61 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        87  59  85  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Clements