Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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218 FXUS64 KOHX 161204 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 704 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Mostly clear and calm conditions once again this morning. It`s on the warm side with temperatures in the 70s, upper 60s Plateau. The upper level high was directly over our area yesterday. It is now expected to move to our east and strengthen. Meanwhile, a sfc high is anchored off of the New England coast. This will allow a more uniform southerly flow to return today with the humidity levels inching upward. Along with the humidity, the temperatures will climb a degree or two warmer as well. This is being aided by that aforementioned upper high which is actually going to strengthen with time. Now, yesterday, both the high temp and the highest hourly heat index hit 96F. That 96F temp ended up pairing with dewpoints near 60F. Thus, the HI effect was neutral. Now for today, were going to see 97F for a high at BNA and those dewpoints will be into the mid 60s. So, we are going to look at heat index values in the 99F to 103F. This should also suffice for the remainder of our area, a little cooler along the Plateau of course. Now as far as precipitation goes, I must note the following...it is very very important to discuss pops, especially on a day like today. Otherwise, with the increase in humidity, our afternoon temperatures will be approaching the convective level. Lift looks isolated to scattered and somewhat disorganized. Nevertheless, look for isolated to scattered convection to develop in the late afternoon, which will move slowly northward. The activity does not look strong or severe. The cells will die toward evening. As far as those very very important pops go, they should chime in at around 30-40 percent. Some areas could see up a half inch of rain or so. On Monday, there is a little pattern difference although as the high over the carolinas strengthens further and could perhaps morph the pattern into a ring of fire with perhaps a little more activity to our west, and less to the east. On Tuesday we will start to see some westward ridge extension and pops will lower considerably to just minimal levels at best. For the near term temps, the hottest day look like today with upper 90s for many areas. Then, mid 90s to follow. Some models do elude toward an increase in high cloudiness by Tuesday. Thus, the NBM tries to show some lower 90s for highs. At any rate, still hot. Overnight lows look like lower to mid 70s, upper 60s along the Plat. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Sunday) Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 In the extended forecast, that upper high is expected to strengthen over the mid Atlantic with plenty of westward extension. Subsidence and the degree of anti cyclonic flow will keep us precip free through mid week. Following this, models diverge with the potential for an easterly wave that could move into the Gulf. NHC/NBM and the Euro all delay this feature more toward next weekend. Perhaps some low pops will emerge late in the extended. For those extended temps, the heat continues. NBE numbers show mid to upper 90s with dewpoints thankfully holding in the 60s. Lows 70- 75F. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 653 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The majority of the period should be VFR with light winds and mostly clear skies. This afternoon some scattered storms may develop, which could produce vicinity storms at terminals east of CKV. Any storms should die down by 02Z and leave conditions quiet overnight tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 97 74 95 74 / 40 20 20 10 Clarksville 95 72 92 73 / 20 20 30 10 Crossville 89 68 88 68 / 40 20 20 10 Columbia 96 72 93 73 / 30 10 20 10 Cookeville 91 71 91 72 / 40 20 20 10 Jamestown 91 70 89 70 / 30 20 20 10 Lawrenceburg 95 72 92 73 / 30 10 20 10 Murfreesboro 96 72 95 74 / 40 20 20 10 Waverly 96 73 92 73 / 20 10 30 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Whitehead