451
FXUS64 KOHX 250531
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 825 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Forecast remains on track with cool overnight lows thanks to the
cooler and drier airmass we saw today. Our folks throughout the
Upper Cumberland will see temps drop into the upper 50s while the
rest of us see temps in the 60s. Those cooler temps in the early
morning hours wont last long though as daytime highs climb right
back into the 90s Tuesday. Our W counties will be the warmest with
highs in the upper 90s. On the plus side, dewpoints in the 60s
tomorrow will help those temperatures be a little more bearable.
Looking ahead, still expecting precip chances to increase by late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Sunny, cooler and less humid day across Middle Tennessee today
thanks to a cold front that moved through the region last night,
with current temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the upper
50s to mid 60s. Highs will only reach the mid 80s to low 90s
today thanks to this cooler and drier airmass, with lows tonight
quite nice for late June in the upper 50s on the Plateau and 60s
elsewhere. Unfortunately, this cooldown will be short lived as
upper ridging aloft builds back in. With the dry airmass
remaining in place, temps will heat up quickly with mid to upper
90s expected for all but the Plateau. Thankfully, the lower
dewpoints will help to make it feel not quite so hot tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Tuesday night into Wednesday, an upper trough will sink southward
from the northern Plains and Great Lakes, shoving the upper ridge
well to our west. An associated cold front will also move
southward across Middle Tennessee on Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. With high levels of moisture in place shown by GFS PWATs
forecast to be near or over 2 inches, anticipating scattered to
numerous showers and storms across the area on Wednesday -
especially in the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings aren`t very
impressive with modest CAPE, mid level lapse rates close to 5
C/km, and deep layer shear less than 20 knots. Nevertheless,
could still see a few strong to maybe severe pulse storms due to
the high moisture levels, with wet microbursts containing
potentially damaging winds the main threat. SPC has highlighted
much of the midstate in a marginal risk for Wednesday.

Rain chances will end on Thursday with another fairly "cool" day
expected thanks to the post-cold frontal airmass. Unfortunately,
the upper ridge to our west is forecast to build eastward and
strengthen significantly, with 500mb heights rising to near
598dm. This will bring us at least two very hot days on Friday and
Saturday with highs in the 90s to near 100 areawide. Saturday in
particular appears likely to need our first Heat Advisory for the
year as the combination of heat and dewpoints in the upper 60s and
low 70s will lead to widespread heat index values of 105 to 110.
Luckily, another upper trough will swing through from Saturday
night into Sunday and erode the upper ridge a tad. This will cool
us down slightly for Sunday plus bring us another round of
scattered showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Light and variable to calm winds overnight will gradually shift
around to the south-southwest and increase to about 5 kts after
daybreak. Skies look to be clear through the TAF period with no
restictions to VIS expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      98  74  95  72 /   0  10  50  60
Clarksville    96  74  91  69 /   0  20  40  40
Crossville     90  67  91  65 /   0   0  60  60
Columbia       97  71  97  70 /   0  10  50  60
Cookeville     92  70  91  68 /   0  10  60  60
Jamestown      91  69  91  67 /   0  10  60  60
Lawrenceburg   96  71  95  69 /   0   0  50  60
Murfreesboro   98  71  97  70 /   0  10  60  60
Waverly        97  73  92  69 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Cravens
SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....05