916
FXUS64 KOHX 260654
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
154 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

All is quiet in Middle Tennessee at the moment but that won`t last.
We face a substantial severe weather threat today. Right now, our
eyes are back to the west over Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas where
storms are ongoing. That activity will move eastward through the
rest of the overnight hours. CAMS are showing the activity over
eastern Oklahoma/ northwestern Arkansas impacting our area during
the morning hours. There could be enough instability around for
this round to produce some damaging wind and an instance or two of
large hail. While this round has some severe potential this is
not the main round. The atmosphere will rapidly destabilize during
the afternoon with SBCAPE values potentially as high as 3000 J/kg
late in the afternoon. There is some uncertainty regarding the
convective evolution late in the afternoon. While there won`t be
any large scale lift during that time frame, there could be some
remnant outflow boundaries around that could be a source of storm
initiation. Our effective bulk shear will be in excess of 50 kts
by the afternoon with some steeper mid level lapse rates advecting
into the area from the west. If storms can fire late in the
afternoon, we could see a couple supercells with all severe
threats (damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes).

Confidence is higher in a solution where storms fire to our west
during the evening and move eastward into our area. By the time
storms get here, we will likely be looking at an MCS. With that
said, damaging winds would be the primary concern, but a few
circulations embedded in the line will pose a tornado threat and a
couple instances of large hail will still be possible given the
steep lapse rates aloft. The line of storms should move through the
area and clear our south and east by 2-4 AM CDT Monday morning. At
that point, the severe threat should be over but the rain will
linger.

In addition to the severe threat, a flash flooding threat will be
present particularly in the north where chances are higher of
multiple rounds of storms from this morning and this evening. While
storm motions will be progressive today, recent heavy rainfall and
PWAT values around the 90th percentile will pose enough threat to go
ahead and issue a flood watch for the entire area.

The front will slowly move through the CWA late tonight into
Memorial Day. The rain chances on Memorial Day should be confined
to areas east of I-65 and those chances will decrease as the
morning and afternoon progress.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

By Monday night, the front will be east of us and the entire area
should be dry. This will be the start of a calmer pattern for the
rest of the week. Large scale troughing will dip out of Canada into
the Great Lakes region on Tuesday with northwesterly low level flow
here locally. The air will be drier on Tuesday with dew points
falling into the mid to upper 50s by sunset. By Wednesday, the low
level flow will be northerly as surface high pressure moves from
the northerly plains toward the Great Lakes. Highs on Wednesday
and Thursday will struggle to touch 80 degrees and the nights will
be cooler with lows in the 50s Thursday morning and Friday
morning. In fact, a few spots on the plateau may dip into the 40s.
The large trough will slide east on Friday with upper level
ridging on its heels. Highs on Friday will rebound back into the
low to mid 80s. Those warmer temperatures will stick around
through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Complicated forecast over the next 24-36 hours. Starting with
tonight, high clouds are building in from the west. Most of the
overnight period should be dry with calm winds and areas of
patchy fog.

Tempos are in at each site for convection expected to push through
the area later this morning near 12Z. For the afternoon period,
models do not have a good handle on if there will be thunderstorm
development or not. If there is, it will be scattered in nature
and quite impactful with all modes of severe weather possible.

The main line of storms is forecast to enter into Middle TN near
3-4Z tomorrow night. Similarly, all modes of severe weather will
be possible with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      90  71  86  64 /  60  90  20   0
Clarksville    88  70  82  61 /  70  80  10   0
Crossville     82  64  79  56 /  60  90  60  10
Columbia       90  68  85  61 /  40  90  20   0
Cookeville     84  66  80  59 /  60  90  60  10
Jamestown      82  65  79  57 /  70  80  60  10
Lawrenceburg   88  68  84  61 /  40  80  30   0
Murfreesboro   89  68  85  60 /  50  90  30   0
Waverly        90  68  83  61 /  50  80  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday morning
for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De
Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-
Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-
Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Baggett