606
FXUS64 KOHX 152318
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
618 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through tonight)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The band of showers (Francine remnants) that was focused over our
southwest counties the past couple of days has shifted farther
southwest today as dry air has pushed in from the north and east.
Still, there will be just enough moisture and instability for a
few showers or brief thunderstorms this afternoon and early
evening for areas along and southwest of I-24. Any storm impacts
should be brief with coverage mostly in the 20 to 30 percent
range. Otherwise the rest of the day will be partly to mostly
sunny with warm temperatures in the 80s.

Any showers or isolated storms will dissipate quickly this
evening. Late night may bring some patchy fog as most areas dip to
the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

The rest of this week looks dry with pleasant nights and warm
days. A strong ridge over the Great Lakes and New England will
push dry and stable air into the area for the start of the week.
Later in the week, another ridge from our southwest will spread
across the region. This pattern will block us off from any
significant wet weather systems. One of those systems will be a
low pressure system along the east coast that could become a
tropical low. Most models keep the impacts form this system out
of our area. The GFS tracks more to the west, but the GFS is
considered an outlier. Even with a western drift, odds are very
low for any meaningful rainfall in our coverage area. At this
point, we do have some 10-20 percent shower chances along the
Plateau midweek. Otherwise, dry through the week.

Clear nights and mostly sunny days will be in the forecast across
Middle Tennessee this week. Dry air will allow temps to drop to
comfortable levels at night with near normal lows. A few patches
of shallow fog will be possible each night, mainly along lakes
and rivers and in valleys. The sunny days will be warm with highs
running a few degrees above normal throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Isolated to widely scattered showers across middle TN will
continue to dissipate with sunset. Don/t expect these to affect
and terminals.  VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through
the TAF period. SCT/BKN mid and high level clouds will also
dissipate with sunset leaving a few high clouds at best. Winds
will be easterly 10 kts or less and become northeasterly after
16/18Z still 10 kts or less.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      65  89  62  86 /  20   0   0   0
Clarksville    64  88  59  86 /  20   0   0   0
Crossville     57  83  55  79 /   0   0  10  10
Columbia       62  88  60  86 /  20  10   0   0
Cookeville     61  83  57  80 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      59  82  55  76 /   0   0  10  10
Lawrenceburg   62  87  59  85 /  20   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   63  88  60  86 /  20   0   0   0
Waverly        64  87  60  86 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....12