240
FXUS64 KOHX 290555
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1255 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 808 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Muggy conditions through tonight will lead to a very hot and humid
Saturday. Lows tonight will fall only into the 70s with highs
Saturday mostly lower to mid 90s. A Heat Advisory will remain in
effect for Saturday for much of the area west of the Plateau.

There were 2 or 3 tiny showers in Middle TN this evening, but
they have faded with sunset. Another little shower or 2 could
bubble up in the moist air overnight with slightly convergent
southerly winds, but coverage / probability of rain will be less
than 5 percent. Coverage of showers and storms will increase
tomorrow mainly for the Plateau. Area-wide coverage will be better
Saturday night and Sunday as a front approaches.

No major forecast changes are needed at this time. Keep heat
safety in mind with an emphasis on hydration and limited heat and
sun exposure when possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

The heat is definitely on in Middle Tennessee. High pressure is
now situated to our east, so we`re picking up some return
southerly flow that is sending our temperatures soaring while also
slowly increasing our dew points. Tomorrow will be even more
oppressive as a surface boundary closes in on Middle Tennessee
from the northwest. We expect enough additional humidity tomorrow
that we are going to issue a Heat Advisory for most of Middle
Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau for tomorrow. In
addition, we expect scattered convection to develop in the pre-
frontal environment. While this may provide some temporary relief
in some locations, we still expect many locations to reach a heat
index of 105F+. It is worth noting that the SPC`s day 2 outlook
does include a tiny sliver of a marginal risk across our northern
counties, but out risk of severe storms on Saturday minimal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024

Our chance for convection will peak on Saturday night and Sunday
with the expected passage of the aforementioned surface boundary.
So we will dry out by Sunday evening and we`ll also enjoy a sunny
and much cooler Monday, but the heat will start to build back in
by Tuesday, with above-normal warmth expected to persist the
remainder of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

VFR conditions are expected at airports most of this TAF period
with some low clouds along with considerable high clouds. Low
chance for MVFR conditions due to TSRA at CSV/SRB Saturday
afternoon, but appears other airports will remain dry. Light south
to southeast winds early in the TAF period will veer to southwest
during the day on Saturday but remain between 5-10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  78  92  66 /  20  30  30   0
Clarksville    95  75  88  62 /  10  40  40   0
Crossville     87  70  87  60 /  60  30  20  10
Columbia       96  75  93  64 /  20  20  20   0
Cookeville     89  73  88  62 /  40  30  30   0
Jamestown      88  72  86  60 /  50  30  30  10
Lawrenceburg   94  74  92  64 /  20  20  20   0
Murfreesboro   96  75  93  64 /  30  20  20   0
Waverly        95  75  88  63 /  10  30  30   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-
Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-
Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Shamburger