081
FXUS61 KOKX 310456
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1256 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will pass through overnight. High pressure will
then build toward the area tonight into Friday, and remain in
control through Saturday. A weak disturbance will move across
late Sunday into Sunday night, followed by another from late
Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A weak low pressure trough lies over the area as of midnight.
Winds behind the trough have shifted N-NW across S CT and from
NYC north/west, and should become N 10-15 mph with a few gusts
up to 20 mph late along the coast and in the metro area, and
5-10 kt farther inland.

Satellite/radar also show and band of BKN-OVC skies with a few
light sprinkles from the Hudson Valley down into NE NJ. Will
have 20 PoP for these in those areas and in parts of NYC.

With CAA kicking in overnight on the NW-N flow, temps should
fall to the upper 50s in NYC, lower/mid 50s elsewhere in the
metro area and along the coast, and to 45-50 inland and in the
Long Island Pine Barrens.

Friday will be bit warmer compared to Thursday with
temperatures closer to average. It will be partly cloudy with
highs in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper ridge will begin shifting overhead Friday night and
especially on Saturday before beginning to flatten Saturday
night. High pressure will be in control at the surface with its
core settling over the Middle Atlantic by Saturday. Surface
ridging should remain over the area into Saturday night. Dry
conditions will continue during this time period with mostly
clear skies. There may be a slight increase in clouds Saturday
night as the ridge flattens and a shortwave approaches from the
west.

Highs on Saturday will be a few degrees above normal, in the
upper 70s/lower 80s. Lows both Friday night will be from the
upper 40s inland to the 50s elsewhere. Lows Saturday night
will be milder, in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not much change in the long term and stuck fairly close to the
NBM. Sunday begins with a surface high pressure ridge not too
far offshore and an upper ridge overhead. The ridge aloft
flattens in the afternoon and evening with the approach and
passage of a shortwave. This may trigger a shower in spots
Sunday afternoon and night for western and far southern portions
of the forecast area.

High pressure remains in control Monday into Tuesday. Expect dry
conditions on Monday. It will probably remain dry on Tuesday,
however will continue to carry some slight chance/chance PoPs
Tuesday afternoon and night. There is a chance that a surface
trough and shortwave aloft could trigger a shower or two.
Tuesday will remain more dry than wet. The pattern doesn`t
change all that much for Wednesday, but models seem to agree
that the ridging shifts more offshore. Slight chance/chance PoPs
therefore for Wednesday as well. A cold front slowly approaches
from the west on Thursday with chance PoP.

NBM was used for temperatures. Each day will feature highs above
normal, ranging mostly from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak sfc trough will pass south overnight. High pressure will
then gradually build in from the west through the period.

VFR conditions are expected.

Winds will shift to the NW-N overnight into the AM push, and may
pick up to around or just over 10 kt with a few gusts 15-18 kt
at the metro terminals. Wind then diminish to 10 kt or less and
shift more to the WNW by late afternoon. A true sea breeze is
not expected, but some coastal terminals may shift more toward
the W or WSW from 18Z-21Z Friday (KJFK, KISP, KBDR, KGON).

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night through Saturday night: VFR.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Showers with MVFR cond possible at times
mainly in the evening.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower cond possible in afternoon/early evening
showers or tstms, mainly NW of the NYC metro terminals.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions will remain below SCA levels through the middle of next
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The rip current risk is moderate for the Suffolk beaches this
afternoon, where combo of SE-S long period swells and offshore
flow 15 kt should build surf to 3-4 ft. The rip current risk
remains low for the Nassau and NYC ocean beaches.

There is a low rip current risk Friday and Saturday and
supported by RCMOS.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/BG/DS
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BC/BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...