671
FXUS61 KOKX 171749
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
149 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in from Northern New England through
tonight. High pressure generally remains in control through the
middle of next week, gradually giving way to an approaching
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Low pressure offshore, southeast of Cape Cod, continues to
gradually moves away from the area today. High pressure centered
over eastern Canada was ridging down along the coast behind the
low, allowing for some clearing, especially of the lower levels,
as mixing has increased.

Shortwave ridging over the area will continue to allow the high
to build into the area from southeastern Canada through the
day. This will promote a drying of the column, though a
continued onshore northeast flow will likely allow cloud cover
to persist much of the day. Temperatures will be seasonable with
highs in the low to middle 70s.

Cloud cover and dry conditions will persist tonight as high
pressure continues to allow for a northeast flow, though it will
be weakening. Lows tonight will be in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Weak high pressure looks to remain in control on Saturday with
a weakening frontal system approaching from the west. As the
cold front approaches during the day, some widely scattered rain
showers will be possible for extreme western portions of the
area. Much of the energy associated with the shortwave trough
and frontal system looks to consolidate in a low pressure system
that develops well south of the area over the Southeast US and
Carolina Coast into Saturday night and Sunday.

The high pressure remains in control through the weekend with
the low passing far enough to the south as to not have much of,
if any, impact to the area. More pronounced mid-level ridging
approaches the area from the west Sunday and into Sunday night,
which strengthens the surface high pressure over the area. This
should allow for further drying and a reduction in cloud cover
through the weekend.

A persistent E/NE flow through the weekend will prevent
temperatures from rising too much. Highs Saturday will be in the
middle to upper 60s with highs Sunday warming up a bit into the
middle 60s to middle 70s. Lows each night will be in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Mainly dry and above normal for the period.

*Late week cold frontal passage, preceded by showers and
thunderstorms.

A relatively quiet period is expected with ridging both aloft and at
the surface to start the week. It will also be warm, especially away
from the immediate coast where an onshore flow will keep it closer
to normal. The warmest day will likely be Thursday ahead of the cold
front, about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. The potential is there
for larger departures.

A southern branch upper trough lifts NE out of the Great Basin early
next week, interacting with some northern branch short wave energy.
There are some timing issues with the associated frontal system due
to this interaction. A cold frontal passage is expected sometime
Thursday, preceded by a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Primarily followed the NBM, but 00Z global models so some slowing of
the system and tried to reflect that trend. While there is also a
chance of convection Wednesday, the better chance looks to be
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure will be in place through Saturday.

VFR through this evening. MVFR ceilings will return late tonight,
first across the eastern terminals during the early morning hours,
and then around 14-15Z Saturday for the NYC and Lower Hudson
terminals. Timing will probably need to be refined.

NE winds veering E to SE at 10 kt or less this afternoon. Wind
become light and variable for a short time tonight before prevailing
mostly NE overnight. Winds remain mostly NE 5-10kt on Saturday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Shift to SE at KLGA/KEWR/KTEB may be off by an hour or two. Chance
that KLGA doesn`t shift SE today.


OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday PM: MVFR, mainly east of the city terminals.

Sunday...MVFR in the morning, then VFR. MVFR or lower could persist
at the eastern terminals all day.

Monday...MVFR/IFR in the morning, then VFR in the afternoon.

Tuesday-Wednesday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas at buoy 44065 were under 5 feet, and at buoy 44025 were
just under 5 feet. So, have cancelled the SCA for the ocean
waters west of Fire Island Inlet with seas mainly below 5 feet.
The SCA continues for the waters east of Fire Island Inlet, as
seas will be gradually subsiding through tonight.

All waters will be below SCA conditions by Saturday and remain
below through the middle of next week as high pressure remains
in control.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic issues through the end of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MET/MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MET/DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW