095
FXUS61 KOKX 121137
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
737 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds southward from Canadian Maritimes today
into tonight. On Sunday, the high shifts farther away with a
warm front slowly moving through the local area. An associated
cold front moves in Monday into Monday night. The frontal
boundary remains in the vicinity Tuesday through Wednesday
morning. A cold front may approach the area by the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Forecast on track. Temperatures and dewpoints observed to
forecast are within a few degrees of each other with the hourly
values.

Low level winds stay from east to southeast today, higher along the
coast and less inland. This will be occurring as high pressure
builds southwest from Nova Scotia. The setup here will allow for
relatively more low level convergence across the interior areas.

For today, starting out the day with low clouds, dry conditions and
perhaps some patches of fog, outside of NYC. HRRR has been more
aggressive with the formation of fog, but limited potential for the
fog and the scenario is more of low clouds as opposed to fog. Still
have some locations where higher relative humidity approaching 100
percent with patchy fog.

Otherwise, any morning fog and low clouds will soon burn off with
low level moisture mixing out as another seasonably warm day is
expected. Utilized the NBM along with the MAV MOS to give warmer
temperatures than including the MET MOS guidance. Warmest locations
are within northeast NJ and Lower Hudson Valley and thereby where
the most low level instability will be. CAMs are not depicting much
convection within the local region and seem to be much less than the
NBM POPs would suggest. Did manually lower from NBM POPs regarding
the convection. The interior locations are where the chances
for showers and thunderstorms are, highest between 2PM and 8PM
EDT. Coastal areas not expected to see showers or thunderstorms.

Max temperature forecast mainly within the 80s with relatively
cooler values along much of the immediate shoreline. Within the area
of Lower Hudson Valley, NE NJ, interior SW CT as well as NYC, highs
today are within the upper 80s. These same locations will see max
heat index values of several degrees higher than the actual
temperature with the very humid airmass. These max heat indices
are mostly in the lower 90s, below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight into Sunday, the flow regime across the area does not
change much at all. Still looking at overall east to southeast
winds. The pressure tendency does turn more negative Sunday
afternoon into Monday.

For tonight, with the lack of upper level forcing, the decrease of
diurnal instability should allow for any convection to diminish in
coverage. Expecting mainly dry conditions tonight.

Minimum temperatures also from MAV and NBM, limited with their
downward potential due to anticipated increase in cloud coverage. In
addition, patches of fog could develop once again for parts of the
region outside of NYC.

Once again, expecting the clouds to decrease as the day progresses
Sunday with any residual patchy fog burning off in the morning.
Forecast has another chance for showers and thunderstorms, but this
time farther away from the coast and not starting until after 2PM.

Weather overall looks to become more unsettled thereafter going into
Sunday night and Monday. Forecast has a higher chance for showers
(becoming likely) on Monday and Monday night. Thunderstorm potential
limited to chance.

The increased probability of showers comes as a result of an overall
trend from ridging to more troughing aloft. Likewise, models
indicate the presence of more instability, a sign also of cooling
aloft to help generate that extra CAPE. At the surface, a warm
front moves across Sunday into Sunday night and then a cold
front approaches Monday.

Airmass itself does not significantly change during the short
term but dewpoints trend a little higher Monday so more lower
90s for the max heat index forecast in the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
It will be unstable for much of the week with a hot airmass in
place. Despite a frontal boundary in the vicinity Tuesday, some
ridging ahead of the next system could limit convection into
Wednesday morning. The approach of an upper level trough could along
with the weak forcing from the frontal boundary could allow for some
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. A cold front
approaching from the NW could help trigger more extensive coverage
Thu into the first half of next weekend.

Temps are expected to be above normal Tue-Fri, with highs in many
spots int the lower to middle 90s away from the coast. Thu is
modeled to be the hottest at this time with apparent temps around
100 for NE NJ and the interior.

The NBM was followed.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Weak high pressure remains in place through tonight.

MVFR to IFR conditions across the area. Conditions improve back
to VFR mid to late this morning. MVFR conditions return
this evening, with IFR conditions tonight. PROB30 for shra/tsra
at KSWF in the afternoon.

Winds SE under 10 kt, becoming light and variable for outlying
areas tonight, and possibly for all terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely due to timing of lowering flight categories this
morning. Return to MVFR to IFR (potentially lower) tonight. Best
chance for IFR are for KJFK.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: MVFR/IFR, improving to VFR Sunday afternoon.

Monday: MVFR or lower in the afternoon and early evening with
showers and thunderstorms likely.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Mainly VFR. Showers or thunderstorm possible in
the afternoon and evening.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The absence of a steep pressure gradient will keep conditions on
all waters within the region below small craft advisory
criteria through Monday night.

With a weak pressure gradient, winds and waves are expected to
remain below SCA criteria from Tuesday through Wednesday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns tonight through Sunday. Possible minor
flooding on Monday and Monday night with more heavy rain
potential. Marginal risk for flash flooding for much of the
but thinking this will be quite localized. PWATs are reaching a
little over 2 inches Monday, with higher dewpoints and more
humid airmass. This will allow for greater potential of heavy
rainfall.

In the long term, localized hydrologic impacts are possible due to
tstms.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Rip current risk is moderate through Sunday along Atlantic
facing ocean beaches with onshore flow near 10 kt and a 3-4 ft
swell from the southeast at a 7 to 8 sec Sat, and an added long
period onshore swell on Sun.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JMC/JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...