574
FXUS61 KOKX 231145
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
745 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving cold front will move through the area today and
tonight, moving offshore early Friday morning. Weak high
pressure builds in Friday and remains Friday night. High
pressure moves over the region Saturday. A cold front moves
through Sunday, moving back north as a warm front Monday. A cold
front moves through Tuesday with dry conditions expected by
mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor adjustments made for current conditions. Showers and
thunderstorms were approaching the area from eastern
Pennsylvania/western New Jersey.

A slow moving cold front was across western upstate New York
and extended into northwestern Pennsylvania and into northern
Ohio, with a prefrontal trough across central Pennsylvania into
western Virginia. This front was associated with a low over
southeastern Canada that will move little through today as the
front become more parallel to the low and mid level flow. A warm
and humid airmass was in place ahead of the cold front, as dew
points have increased into the lower and mid 60s. The area will
become increasingly unstable early this morning as daytime
heating begins. From central New Jersey through the lower Hudson
Valley and into southwestern Connecticut surface based CAPE
increases to 1000 to 1500 J/kg and instability lowers with the
lifted index around -2. Lift with the front is rather weak,
however a few isolated stronger thunderstorms will be possible.
And with low level lapse rates increasing with deeper mixing,
and soundings developing inverted V, stronger, to marginally
severe storms could produce strong and gusty winds, along with
hail. The Storm Prediction Center has kept a marginal risk for
severe weather today, with damaging winds and hail the primary
threats. However, with the isolated nature of the storms, and
the marginal risk have not included enhanced wording with the
thunderstorms. The CAMs are indicating that the storms will be
early in the day, and generally followed them for the
probabilities. Then with the activity this morning, additional
destabilization will be difficult later this afternoon and into
early evening, and have lowered probabilities to slight chance
and removed the mention of thunder.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front slowly moves to the south this evening through
tonight and passes south Friday morning. Little precipitation
is expected with the front after this evening, and will be
mainly to the south, ahead of the front, so have gone with a dry
forecast later this evening and through tonight. Ridging
amplifies to the west tonight and the ridge moves slowly into
the region Friday into Friday night as weak surface high
pressure builds to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key points:

* Above normal temperatures on Sunday transition to near or slightly
  above normal Monday through Wednesday.

* Rather unsettled during this time frame with multiple fronts
  affecting the area.

Zonal flow aloft for Saturday, though there are some model
differences with the potential for a weak cut off low over Virginia
to head toward the region as advertised by the 00Z GFS. This low
This low weakens into a trough as it moves toward the area late
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

A cold front approaches later Saturday night and moves through
Sunday morning, bringing a chance for light showers.

Strengthening low pressure over the western Great Lakes region heads
northwest into Canada on Monday, sending the cold front that moved
through on Sunday back north as a warm front. A period of unsettled
weather is then expected from Monday through Monday night as the
warm front, then cold front move through the region. A period of
moderate to briefly heavy rain is possible Monday night in
association with the cold frontal passage. However, given
uncertainty this far out, did not mention in the forecast just yet.
The area looks to get dry slotted for Tuesday, cutting off
precipitation, though condition could get breezy as the low
continues to strengthen somewhere over the Great Lakes region or
southern Canada, depending on the model. Dry conditions continue
into Wednesday.

Above normal temperatures Sunday will trend closer to normal to
slightly above normal for the remainder of the long term period.
Monday temperatures may be a couple of degrees to high if more in
the way of clouds and rain occurs, as is advertised by the ECMWF
and Canadian models.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front approaches today pushing through tonight.

Outside of showers and thunderstorms for this morning into the early
afternoon, conditions are expected to be VFR. There is a chance
for some MVFR conditions for eastern areas tonight (CT coast
terminals), mainly after 03Z, but confidence was not high enough
to include in TAFs.

S to SSW winds this morning under 10 kt briefly shift to the
WSW to W (possibly even NW) around 14Z today (western
terminals) and 17Z Thursday(eastern terminals) as a pre- frontal
trough moves through. Winds shift back to the S to SW in the
afternoon before the passage of the cold front after 06Z Friday
or thereafter.

Any gusts will be associated with thunderstorms, generally up to 20
kt. However, stronger thunderstorms will be associated with gusts of
30 to 40 kt, of which there is a low chance of this happening.
There is also a low chance of hail associated with any
thunderstorms moving through the terminals.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with the pre-frontal trough
from west to east move through 13Z-17Z for western terminals
and 15Z-19Z for eastern terminals. Brief MVFR conditions
possible with these showers and thunderstorms.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled Amendments expected through 10Z. Amendments may be
needed towards this morning`s push if thunderstorm activity arrives
earlier than expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday night: VFR expected. Low chance of MVFR or lower,
mainly for eastern terminals.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: Chance of afternoon/evening showers and possibly a tstm,
with MVFR cond possible.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday: Chance of showers and possibly a tstm, with MVFR cond
possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected across the forecast waters today
through Monday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected today with rainfall of 1/4 to
1/2 inch, with locally higher amounts possible in heavy rain
with thunderstorms.

No hydrologic impacts are expected tonight through the middle of
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET