Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 231501
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1101 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will remain to the south tonight, while a wave of
low pressure moves along it, then lift to the north on Sunday.
A cold front will pass through Sunday afternoon and evening.
High pressure will then build in through mid week, giving way to
a warm front Wednesday night into Thursday. A weak cold front
will pass on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Coverage for showers has been isolated to scattered at best, and
per latest radar, sat low level water vapor, and hi-res model
guidance, should remain so through the afternoon. Seeing some
spotty drizzle as well, especially across central/eastern Long
Island and along the CT coast. Tstms riding the warm front on
the outer coastal waters should remain south this afternoon.

E winds are at their peak late this morning, and should diminish
into this afternoon.

Highs today will only be in the upper 60s and lower 70s due to
cloud cover, on and off light precip, and easterly flow.

There is a moderate rip current risk at the ocean beaches
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Passing upper shortwave along with warm front and sfc wave of
low pressure approaching the coastal locations will result in
higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening,
though if more southerly trend of latest hi-res guidance is
correct, this idea may have to be revisited, especially inland.
Local downpours will be possible with PW approaching 2 inches.
The warm front should lift toward Long Island overnight with
most of the showers departing late.

On Sunday, the warm front is expected to lift to the north.
Persistent W/SW flow aloft expected, and will slowly steer a
cold front through late in the day and at night.

Moderate instability builds NW of NYC, and showers and
thunderstorms redevelop during the afternoon, before
dissipating at night.

Lows tonight will remain in the 60s, and warmer temps are
anticipated Sunday with W/SW flow as area sits temporarily in
the warm sector. Lower to middle 80s are expected. Lows fall
into the 60s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in during Monday, but with a cyclonic flow
aloft there could be a shower or two across SE CT. Partly cloudy
with near normal temperatures. The high pressure center moves
through on Tuesday with sunny conditions and highs close to normal.

The high will be to our east on Wednesday, and a return SW flow
will bring warmer and more humid conditions. It appears the
daytime hours for most areas will be dry as showers ahead of an
approaching warm front remain to the west. The warm front moves
through, then a cold front slowly approaches Thursday into
Friday. Timing of the cold front is not certain, so will go with
slight chance to chance PoPs Wednesday night through Friday.
Rising temperatures aloft will allow for highs in the 90s for
the city and some inland areas Thursday and Friday. If the cloud
cover is lower then currently anticipated, then highs could be
a even a few degrees higher than what`s in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure centered near Nova Scotia and extending into New
England will drift east through today as a warm front and low
pressure approach. The warm front will likely remain to the
south of the terminals through 00Z Sunday. There is a low chance
the front moves through late in the forecast period.

MVFR to IFR ceilings this afternoon, becoming IFR throughout
tonight. Showers will be of the hit and miss variety, with them
far more likely to miss than hit any given terminal until this
evening at the earliest. So only have VCSH until then at all
terminals. A rumble of thunder will be possible with the
showers, with the best chance of thunder late in the afternoon
into the evening. However, confidence in this occurring is to o
low to place in the TAFs at this time.

Winds generally remain NE to E through this afternoon with
speeds diminishing to less than 10 kt. As the warm front
approaches late in the day, winds become light and variable
throughout, and should remain so through tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.Sunday...Chance of MVFR or lower conds in mainly late
day/evening showers/tstms.
.Monday-Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...Mostly VFR. Chance of showers/tstms with MVFR or
lower conds mainly at KSWF.

&&

.MARINE...
E winds north of a warm front are peaking late this morning,
with gusts up to 25 kt, and ocean seas 5-6 ft. Due to the
slightly higher than anticipated seas out east, extended the SCA
that was already in effect for the ocean waters through the
afternoon E of Fire Island Inlet.

By late afternoon/evening, an approaching warm front will allow
flow to weaken, with a subsequent decrease in seas. Ocean seas
could briefly return to around 5 ft late tonight with a
building southerly swell.

Conditions will remain tranquil Sunday through Tuesday as the warm
front moves to the north, followed by a cold frontal passage and
building high pressure. Thereafter, the high shifts offshore, with
south-southwest flow strengthening, and SCA-level gusts possible on
all waters Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. Ocean seas will
increase to SCA-levels in response to the strengthening and
prolonged south-southwest flow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There could be a few locally heavy downpours tonight and again
Sunday. However, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated. Rainfall
totals through tonight will average around half an inch to
locally one inch.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350-
     353.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...Goodman/PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...JC/PW
AVIATION...Maloit/MD
MARINE...MD
HYDROLOGY...PW
EQUIPMENT...


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