805
FXUS61 KOKX 130701
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
301 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to maintain control across the region
through this weekend and into Monday, then will weaken going
into midweek as it gradually moves more offshore. A frontal
system approaches from the west but looks to stay mostly to the
southwest of the region Wednesday into Thursday of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure remains over the region through the period with slow
ridging aloft. Fog early this morning over the interior valleys
and parts of eastern LI will burn off by late morning, leaving
sunny conditions across the region. Temperatures will run a few
degrees above normal with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Mainly clear conditions continue into the evening, then anticipating
patchy fog and perhaps some low stratus overnight primarily
across SE CT, LI and into parts of the city. Also expecting
inland valley fog as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure strengthens over the area as a ridge axis
aloft drifts our way. Much of the same with patchy/areas of stratus
and fog during the overnight and earlier morning periods giving way
to sunny conditions. Saturday looks to be the warmer of the 2 days
with highs mostly 80-85, then a few degrees cooler on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Warm and dry conditions continue early next week with high pressure
remaining over the Northeast. The high is expected to weaken Monday
night into Tuesday as low pressure potentially develops off the
Southeast coast and tracks northwest. It appears that high pressure
over the forecast area will still be strong enough to keep us dry
through at least Tuesday as the potential storm to the south would
weaken as it shifts through the Southeast. A chance of rain/showers
then follows for Tuesday night through Thursday as the associated
moisture drifts north. High temperatures through the long term will
be close to normal in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure remains centered to our east through Friday.

VFR for much of the period.

There is a low chance that some IFR conditions develop between
08Z to 13Z Friday. Forecast guidance has started to back off on
this idea of development and will remove the prevailing IFR to
just TEMPOs. Will continue to monitor overnight.

Light and variable early Friday morning. Onshore flow will
redevelop mid to late Friday morning from the S-SE. KLGA may
stay from the NE into early afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

KLGA could hold on to NE winds 1-2 hours longer than currently
forecast.

Low confidence of MVFR/IFR early this morning.


OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday-Tuesday: Mainly VFR, but a chance of MVFR or lower
fog/clouds for each late night/early morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to promote a weak pressure gradient with
light winds today through tomorrow with sub-advisory conditions.
Onshore winds increase a little on Sunday, but remaining below
advisory thresholds.

Seas are forecast to build to 4 to 5 ft seas Monday and continue
into the middle of next week as a low pressure system remains well
south of the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the middle of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With an approaching full moon for next week on September 17th,
astronomical levels will be rising leading up to that date. With the
continuous easterly flow, this will help build seas and allow for
some piling of water. Winds are expected to remain generally light,
near 10 kt or less. Thinking there will be a possibility for some
tidal locations to be near or at minor coastal flood benchmarks as
indicated by some surge models Sunday into early next week during
their respective times of high tide. This would be mainly for the
South Shore Bays and Western Long Island Sound shorelines and maybe
a few locations along the NY Harbor.

There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean
beaches today and Saturday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...