Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 282342
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
642 PM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front moves across tonight with high pressure
building in from Southeast Canada for late tonight through
Wednesday night. High pressure Thursday and Friday will yield
to low pressure passing offshore over the weekend. After fair
weather on Monday, a weak system may produce some rain on
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Increased clouds for the next few hours based on satellite.
Otherwise the forecast is on track. NW flow will be gusty at
times into this evening towards the coast with a cold front
moving across. There will be abundant clouds to start tonight
ahead of the front with an accompanying mid level shortwave and
its positive vorticity advection moving across the area. High
pressure builds in late tonight behind the front and this will
bring in an airmass from Southeast Canada, with a slight
decrease in winds and decreasing clouds.

Lows overnight into early Wednesday morning are expected to be
a general range from around 20 for outlying rural locations and
the interior to near 30 for NYC. This is consistent with a
consensus of MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Wednesday, expecting the clouds to further decrease as the
center of high pressure moves closer to the local region. In the
mid levels, a ridging trend with slow steady height rises is
evident in the numerical weather prediction models.

NW winds will be around 5 to 10 kt but not expecting much in the
way of gusts as the pressure gradient will be relatively weak.
The ridging aloft will promote subsidence, allowing for much
more sunshine. However, model soundings show vertical mixing
heights will be limited to around 925mb. Highs are generally
expected to be in the upper 30s to lower 40s, a consensus of
MOS.

For Wednesday night, the combination of clear skies and light
winds will provide ideal radiational cooling conditions. Took
the relatively lower MET MOS for temperatures, which will bring
lows for some interior and rural locations near 10 to 15 degrees
while NYC will be in the mid to upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The models were in good agreement in the extended, so the NBM was
generally used, with some local adjustments to temperatures made.
High pressure builds into the Northeast on Thursday, providing fair
weather across the forecast area. A moisture starved upper level
system passes south of the region Thursday night into Friday. The
light precipitation associated with this is progged to stay well
south of the area. There could be some cloud development around 3000
ft late in the day however with a light southerly flow aloft and
weak lift. Dry again on Friday, but increasing clouds are likely as
low pressure begins to organize over the Southeast. The modeling
takes the low east of the area, leaving the forecast area on the wrn
fringe of the system Friday night and Saturday. The current track
would be mainly snow due to the thermal profiles, but little in the
way of liquid equivalent. Rain or snow has been included in the
forecast to incorporate track and timing uncertainties due to the
long lead time. The model blend approach of an H5 trough on Sunday
has led to inclusion of low probabilities for Sunday. If a
deterministic approach was used, the forecast would have been kept
dry per the 12Z data. A quick warmup ensues for the beginning of the
week with ridging building into the area. A shortwave riding the
ridge could produce some rain on Tuesday. There is likely to be some
feedback from convection as the feature emerges from Texas and
tracks newd, so confidence in the details are low this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large area of high pressure gradually builds in from the
west tonight and Wednesday.

VFR. BKN-OVC clouds 4-6 kft this evening should gradually scatter
and clear later tonight. Few if any clouds are expected during
the day Wednesday.

NW winds prevail 8-13 kt before diminishing some later tonight.
These NW winds persist through the day Wednesday, 10-13 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.Wednesday night through Friday night...VFR.
.Saturday...MVFR or lower possible in rain or snow.
.Sunday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance rain or snow. NW gusts 15-20 kt
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Marginal SCA conditions will be in place across the ocean into
this evening with a few wind gusts to 25 kt possible at times.
Most gusts are expected to be near 20 kt on the waters this
evening. Ocean seas will be 2 to 4 ft. Winds subside late
tonight and through midweek with high pressure moving in from
the north. Conditions are expected to be well below SCA
criteria.

Winds and seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels
Thursday into early Saturday. There is then the potential for
advisory conditions, primarily on the ocean, into Monday
depending on the track and intensity of low pressure.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is still
operating at reduced power.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DS/PW
MARINE...JM
HYDROLOGY...
EQUIPMENT...



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