Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 260327
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1127 PM EDT Wed May 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the New England coast will gradually
retreat offshore rough the end of the week, giving way to a
frontal system that will impact the area Friday into Sunday
morning. High pressure returns for the remainder of the holiday
weekend and lasts into the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A highly amplified upper flow features a southern branch closed
low tracking into the Mid Mississippi Valley and a ridge along
the eastern seaboard. At the surface, high pressure along the
New England coast will slowly lose it`s footing and work
offshore the next couple of days, giving way to a frontal system
approaching from the west.

A bit of radiational cooling across outlying areas for at least
the first half of tonight will allow for temps across outlying
areas to drop into the mid 40s, while remaining in the mid 50s
for the metro areas. Otherwise, mid level warm advection clouds
will begin to work in from the west overnight along with a
continued light SE flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid level overrunning clouds are expected the first half of
Thursday but as moisture deepens and a warm front approaches
from the south, clouds will lower and thicken in the afternoon
into the evening with a chance of light rain/or drizzle and fog
Thursday night. The warm front pushes through the area Friday
morning with a strengthening southerly flow of 10 to 20 mph,
strongest along the immediate coast. A few gusts up to 25 mph
are possible.

Dew points into the lower and middle 60s on Friday traversing
the marine waters in the 50s, will likely keep low clouds
across LI and CT for much of the day, however, NYC and points
north and west may be able to some breaks, especially by
afternoon. How much sun will be critical to the amount of
destabilization ahead of a pre-frontal trough working in from
west during the late afternoon into early evening hours. There
will be moderately unstable air and ample shear for the
potential for a few strong and/or severe thunderstorms, but this
looks to be well north and west of the NYC metro (western
Orange and western Passaic) along with the best forcing (pre-
frontal trough).

Highs Friday are forecast to top out near 80 across NE NJ, the
Lower Hudson Valley, and NW portions of NYC. To the east, highs
are forecast to be in the 70s and likely even cooler along the
immediate coast with a strong southerly flow. Felt NBM was a bit
too warm and used a blend of the deterministic and the 25th
percentile. MAV/MET MOS supports a slightly cooler forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled weather continues Friday night and into the weekend as a
cold front is forecast to impact the region. Timing of the cold
frontal passage is still uncertain, but models keep precipitation
through the area through Saturday morning. The front is then
forecast to stall not too far offshore Saturday night into Sunday
morning before dissipating Sunday afternoon. This will bring chances
for showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and
evening, for the entire area. The chance for showers on Sunday will
be lower, but we will have to monitor closer given the uncertainty
in the models. So, will keep dry conditions Sunday afternoon and
through the rest of the long term period as high pressure begins to
build into the area.

Temperatures for Saturday start out in the 70s which is normal for
this time of year. Temperatures will then quickly warm up into the
80s on Sunday and Monday then into the 80s and lower 90s on Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure along the New England coast, will gradually slide
east on Thursday.

VFR through early to mid Thursday afternoon, with an increase
in cloud cover expected late Thu. Increasing probability of MVFR
cigs developing late Thu afternoon through evening, likely
lowering to IFR or lower Thu Night.

Light S-SE tonight into early Thu AM before becoming S-SE 10-15
kt late Thu morning into afternoon.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible late in the day Thursday to adjust for
timing of MVFR ceilings. Winds generally right of 120 true and
left of 180 true.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night...Increasing potential for IFR or lower in
stratus, fog, drizzle towards Fri AM.
.Friday and Friday night...IFR or lower in the AM and at night.
Afternoon SHRA and TSRA potential, highest probability for
KEWR, KTEB, and KSWF. S/SW winds 10-15G20kt.
.Saturday...Low clouds/fog with IFR or lower possible AM,
becoming MVFR/VFR with a chance of afternoon SHRA/TSRA.
.Sunday...VFR. Slight chance of a shower or tstm.
.Monday..VFR. MVFR in scattered showers and isolated tstms
possible in the afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria through
Thursday with a weak pressure gradient in place.

Minimal SCA cond possible Fri afternoon/night on the ocean as a
slow moving low pressure system approaches, with S winds
gusting up to 25 kt and seas 5 ft. Seas may linger at marginal
SCA on Saturday, before falling below on Sunday and through the
beginning of the week.

SCA conditions possible Friday night on the ocean as a slow
moving low pressure system approaches, with S winds gusting up
to 25 kt and seas 5 ft. Seas fall back to below SCA conditions
over the weekend and remain below through the beginning of the
week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
For Friday night into Saturday morning there is still
uncertainty with regards to the duration and location of
heavy rainfall and therefore resultant hydrologic impacts, but
at a minimum urban and poor drainage flooding seems plausible.
Additional potential showers and thunderstorms on Saturday into
Saturday evening are not expected to produce widespread
hydrologic impacts.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW
NEAR TERM...NV/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...Fig/DW
HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW/NV


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