Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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958
FXUS61 KOKX 190800
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
400 AM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides into the Atlantic today into tonight.
Meanwhile, strong low pressure moves into Southeast Canada. A
cold front will approach the region late tonight and move
across the region on Saturday. The cold front moves east of the
region Saturday night. Strong high pressure builds west of the
region for the second half of the weekend, building into the
local area Sunday night into Monday. This high will shift off
the Mid Atlantic coast on Monday followed by a weak clipper like
system tracking through New England on Tuesday. High pressure
then returns for mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Quasi-zonal mid level flow with surface flow becoming more
southwesterly today in response to a departing area of high
pressure. The high pressure will be moving more into the
Atlantic. The setup here with veering wind profiles and
vertical mixing between 950 and 900mb, will give a mild day
relative to the previous day as warmer air advects into the
region. Highs are forecast to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s,
about a few degrees below normal though.

Weather remains dry today with high pressure still close enough
to provide subsidence to keep clouds minimal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be sliding well into the Atlantic tonight
with strong low pressure at the surface moving into Southeast
Canada being accompanied aloft by a longer wavelength trough
moving southeast into the Great Lakes. An associated cold front
will be approaching late tonight.

Persistent SW flow continues and will be gusty at times. In
addition the encroaching low pressure will bring an increase in
clouds. This will keep temperatures from decreasing too much.
Lows are forecast in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The more
unsettled pattern developing here with the approaching cold
front will bring an increase in precipitation chances which will
be rain showers, mainly overnight.

For the weekend, the cold front moves across the region
Saturday, which will be followed by strong high pressure
building west of the region Saturday night. A few showers will
be possible Saturday and Saturday night with the very cold pool
aloft and trough moving in. The high pressure area slowly makes
its way closer to the local region through the remainder of the
weekend. Aloft, the large longwave trough moves in Saturday and
Saturday night. The trough exits Sunday into Sunday night.

Colder air arrives starting Saturday night and through the rest
of the weekend on gusty NW flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Zonal flow briefly developing Mon ahead of the next shortwave
Tue. This is where solutions diverge in the global models. The
GFS is more amplified and more progressive with building heights
for the middle of next week while the ECMWF is broader at H5
with another shortwave diving down from central Canada for Thu.

Dry and unseasonably cool weather is forecast for the remainder
of the period, although PoPs on Tue may increase in subsequent
forecast packages if there is a bit more moisture for a clipper
like system to work with in southern New England.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure builds to the south and east of the terminals
through this evening. A cold front approaches tonight.

Mainly VFR through the TAF period. There is a chance of showers
tonight that could briefly lower conditions to MVFR.

Light and variable winds early this morning become SW and
increase through the day. Sustained speeds will be 10-15 kt with
gusts 15-20kt this afternoon. Gusts could weaken or briefly end
this evening, but a gusty SW flow returns overnight.

     ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: Start time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts may briefly subside this eve, but return tonight.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: Start time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts may briefly subside this eve, but return tonight.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: Start time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts may briefly subside this eve, but return tonight.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies
slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional rather than
prevailing.

KHPN TAF Comments: Gusts may be occasional rather than
prevailing.

KISP TAF Comments: Start time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.
Gusts may briefly subside this eve, but return tonight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.Friday night-Saturday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers
into early Saturday, then VFR. SW gusts 20-25 kt.
.Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. W-NW winds G20-30KT.
.Sunday night-Monday...VFR. W gusts 15-20 kt possible Sunday
night.
.Tuesday...VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt possible.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions develop late this morning and continue across
non-ocean waters for a majority of the time through the
weekend. For the ocean, SCA winds increase to gales tonight into
Saturday morning. Then, SCA winds are forecast for the ocean for
the rest of Saturday with another possible round of gales for
the ocean Saturday night and Sunday, closed out with SCA winds
Sunday night.

Sub-advsy conds return on all waters by Mon morning, although
marginal winds and seas are possible late Mon night and Tue.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues are expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ010>012.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for CTZ005>008.
NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ069-070-
     078>081.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ067-068.
NJ...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ004-103-105-
     107.
     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ330-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this
     evening for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...24/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...24
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...24/JM
HYDROLOGY...24/JM
EQUIPMENT...



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