888
FXUS61 KOKX 211125
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
725 AM EDT Fri Mar 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front pushes east this morning, with strengthening low
pressure tracking thru the Gulf of Maine this afternoon. A high
pressure ridge will briefly slide in for tonight, before
another cold front approaches Saturday and moves through
Saturday evening. High pressure will briefly return again on
Sunday before a stronger frontal system moves through on Monday.
Weak high pressure will return on Tuesday, with another low
pressure system possible for mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...

* NW winds 25-30G35-45mph expected through this afternoon.
  Isolated peak gusts to 50 mph possible.

A vigorous shortwave entering western portions of the local
Tri-State slides through the area thru this morning and then east
this afternoon. At the surface, cold front/occluded front is
pushing east of the region with developing triple point low E
of the region. Weak deformation band in wake of low lifts ne
through S CT through daybreak, with potential lingering bands of
shower coming to an end.

Main story for today will be gusty winds. NW winds
25-30G35-45mph already develop this morning with rapid
tightening of pressure gradient and modest shot of caa in wake
of low pressure. A few gusts around 50 mph possible with 900 mb
winds at top of mixed layer progged to run around 40kt this
morning. Mt Pocono reporting peak wind gusts of 44 kt at 953z.
Downward momentum transfer setup is not ideal to increase
confidence in more widespread 50 mph gusts this AM. Potential
for a few 50 mph gusts this afternoon as well with deeper
diurnal mixing to 800-850mb and better momentum transfer in wake
of shortwave. Overall, marginal NW wind advisory potential
today, during pre-green-up phase, should limit widespread wind
impacts. Winds subside fairly quickly this evening as shortwave
ridging quickly build in.

Otherwise, clearing skies later this morning, with temps
slightly above seasonable in offshore flow. Decent radiational
cooling conditions across outlying areas tonight, allowing low
temps to fall well down into the 20s. Otherwise lows in the 30s
for city/coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages...

* W/NW winds 15-25G30-40mph late Sat/Sat Eve
* Quick shot of polar air Sat Night into Sun AM
* Next chance of a soaking rain (brief wintry mix interior) Sun
  Night into Mon

Active northern stream with PAC/polar shortwave approaching on
Sat and crossing Sat night. This followed by shortwave ridging
Sun ahead of deepening PAC trough/closed low over the upper
Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes, that approaches
the area on Monday.

Models have trended a bit stronger with the interacting
polar/pac shortwaves and resultant polar front approaching
Saturday and crossing Saturday evening. This feature is
moisture starved, but improved dynamics and even a bit of
instability do present a better chance for iso-sct shower
activity, particularly for areas N&W of NYC.

Otherwise, mild and breezy conditions (SW winds 15-25G25-35mph)
develop ahead of the cold front Sat aft with quick shot of waa
and deep mixing, giving way to glancing shot of polar air Sat
eve/night on gusty NW G30-40mph in wake of front.

Brief ridging surface/aloft Sun, in wake of this system with
temps running slightly below seasonable.

A stronger frontal system quickly approaches Sun Night/Mon
associated with vigorous closed low moving through the upper
Mississippi River Valley/Great Lakes Sun night. Approaching
shortwave and 55-60kt llj aid lift of +1-2 STD PWAT gulf moisture
over an approaching warm front to the south, increasing the
likelihood of rain for the city/coast Sun Night into Monday AM.

Across the interior, thermal profiles primed by recent polar
airmass intrusion, could support a period of snow or a wintry
mix at the onset Sun Night/early Mon AM, before transitioning to
rain. Any snow/wintry mix accum would be light, with NBM probs
for far interior under 10% for 1" and 20 to 30% for > 0.1" at
this time. In addition, potential for a period of moderate to
heavy rain as well for eastern portions of the region Monday AM
(NBM prob of 20-30% for greater than 1" of rain) as WCB develops
with more favorable ulj/llj lift.

Drying conds Monday afternoon in wake of cold front/developing
triple pint low.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low pres will depart Mon ngt, with any lingering pcpn rapidly
tapering off per the consensus fcst. Timing attm is before midnight.
A developing wly flow could limit low temps. There is a good
discrepancy with the MEX in some of the outlying locations so there
could be some colder pockets than the NBM is indicating.

Despite the cold temps aloft with the GFS around -5C at h85 on Tue,
wly flow and sunshine should promote good mixing and yield high
temps aoa climo. The NBM was used.

The GFS and ECMWF have a weak low passing S of the cwa on Wed. The
NBM has around a 30 pop for this feature, which seams reasonable
attm. The ECMWF does take the low to the benchmark at 18Z Wed, but
the sys is modeled to be progressive and the daytime timing will not
help with snow chances as well. GFS track is further S.

Will go with fair and cooler wx for Thu. There is a lot of
uncertainty this far out, with the suggestion in the GFS that some
shrtwv energy will traverse the region. Skeptical at this point
considering the more amplified yet benign ECMWF, so kept the fcst
dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure gradually builds towards the region today. A
frontal sys approaches on Sat.

Outside of a couple of lingering MVFR pockets thru 13Z, VFR thru
the TAF period.

NW winds with gusts up to 40kt today. Winds decrease late today
and become generally lgt and vrb overnight. SW flow develops on
Sat.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Peak gusts around 40 kt today.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance of a shower NW of NYC in the
afternoon. SW gusts 20-25kt in the afternoon, becoming W/NW in
the evening.

Sunday: VFR. NW gusts 15-20kt.

Sunday Night and Monday: Becoming IFR with rain. Possible onset
as snow for KSWF. S gusts 15-20kt near the coast on Monday.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Marine dense fog advy across water will be able to be lifted at
2am as a frontal system moves across the waters.

SCA remains in effect for the ocean waters for tonight as SE
flow increases to 20 kt and pushes current 4-5 ft seas to 5-7 ft
late tonight.

The gale warning for daytime Fri also remains in effect, with
gusts up to 35 kt expected on all waters mainly from late
morning into early afternoon in strong NW flow.

Sub advisory conditions for Saturday morning, then winds and
seas build in a SW flow. Advisory conditions mainly on the
ocean Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Elsewhere, a
few gusts to 25 kt possible during Saturday night. Sub-SCA conds
for Sunday afternoon and night as a high pressure ridge shifts
through. The next potential for SCA conds is then on Monday
ahead of a frontal system, particularly on the ocean.
Elevated seas may linger through a good portion of Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong NW flow frequently gusting to 35-45 mph and RH quickly
lowering to 25-30 percent expected today, after a wetting rain
of 1/2 to 3/4 inch overnight. Fuel conditions will be re-
evaluated with land managers this morning to determine the
potential of elevated risk of fire growth/spread this afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
1/4 to 3/4 inches of rain possible for Sunday Night into
Monday.

No significant hydrologic impacts expected through middle of next
week at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...JMC/NV