Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 140222
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1022 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure passes just to our southeast tonight,
followed by building high pressure Monday into Tuesday.
Low pressure and a cold front will affect the region Wednesday
and Wednesday night. The low moves to the northeast Thursday as
high pressure begins to build to the southwest. High pressure
will then dominate Friday into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Precipitation remains on track tonight with showers approaching
from the south. Models continue to indicate that the majority
the rain passes south of the region, just brushing Long Island
overnight. Made minor updates to sky cover, temperatures, and
dewpoints to better capture the latest trends, otherwise the
forecast remains on track.

Increasing cyclonic flow aloft along with a southern stream jet
streak passing just off to our SE tonight will help develop a
weak surface low. The center of this low should remain offshore,
but will be close enough to bring chances of rainfall mainly
east of NYC, but still at least a slight chance in the vicinity
of the city. Any accumulations would be light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
There will be a chance of lingering rain during the first half
of Monday morning over LI and SE CT. Otherwise, dry weather and
diminishing clouds on Monday with highs above normal across the
Tri-State area. The flow aloft Monday night through Tuesday
becomes more zonal and surface high shifts towards us through
the period with its axis moving offshore Tuesday afternoon.
Rain-free conditions therefore continue, and temperatures will
return closer to seasonable levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A progressive northern stream will dominate the weather through the
long term period with a relatively amplified pattern.
The beginning of the long term will be tranquil as ridging moves
into the western Atlantic and a significant shortwave amplifies into
the Great Lakes region. The forecast as been consistent, and
confidence increasing, for a deep coastal low to develop Wednesday
afternoon and the upper trough closes off and becomes negative. An
impulse moving into the base of the trough emerges off the mid
Atlantic late Wednesday with a coastal low expected to develop along
the cold front, and along a thermal ridge, and quickly deepen
Wednesday night. There will be a lot of lift with the low along with
elevated instability and elevated CAPE. Precipitable water vales
quickly increase to 1 1/2 inches during this time. A brief period of
moderate to heavy rainfall is likely late Wednesday afternoon into
the evening with embedded convective elements in the rain. A rumble
of thunder is a possibility at that time as well. There is also a
flood threat. See the hydrology section for details. The low tracks
quickly along the New england coast Wednesday night and
precipitation then ends. With wrap around moisture Thursday, and
some energy rotating around the west side of the upper low, there is
a slight chance of a few showers across the far interior zones
Thursday.

Temperatures Tuesday night will not be diurnal as strong warm
advection develops. Lows will most likely occur Tuesday evening,
then temperatures will rise through the night, especially across the
inland.

Strong and gusty westerly winds develop behind the low Thursday,
mainly near the coast. Winds and gusts are expected to remain below
advisory levels at this time.

Tranquil weather returns as an amplified ridge builds into the area
Thursday night through the upcoming weekend. Next weekend
temperatures are likely to be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Weak high pressure along southern New England into Long Island
weakens overnight as a wave of low pressure moving off the
DELMARVA tracks south of Long Island. High pressure builds in
early Monday, then a cold front passes through Monday evening.

VFR until late tonight. MVFR ceilings develop in stratus after
07Z, with a low chance of IFR in a few locations toward Monday
morning. Rain chances will be confined to eastern terminals and
off the coast, and only indicated VCSH at KISP and KGON. VFR
conditions return mid morning into the afternoon.

Winds generally light and variable through the overnight and
into early Monday morning. Winds then become W to SW 5 to 10 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Monday night-Tuesday...VFR.
.Wednesday...MVFR/IFR likely developing in rain. Chc SE gusts
around 25 kt.
.Thursday...VFR. NW gusts 25 to 35kt.
.Friday...VFR. NW winds, diminishing gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will prevail over the waters through
Tuesday. Sustained winds for much of this period are expected to be
at 10 kt or less, but may briefly approach 15 kt Monday night. Seas
should remain below 5 ft.

High pressure over the forecast waters Tuesday moves offshore
through Tuesday night as a deepening low, and associated cold front,
approaches from the Great Lakes. A coastal low is expected to
develop south of Long Island Wednesday afternoon and track along the
New England coast Wednesday night.

Conditions will be sub SCA levels Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon SCA conditions develop. Wind gusts increase
Wednesday night into Thursday as the low moves away and a strong
west to northwest flow develops. Gale force gusts are likely
Wednesday night on the ocean waters, and across all the forecast
waters Thursday, possibly into early Thursday evening.
Winds subside Thursday night into Friday, along with ocean seas.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts for any rainfall that occurs tonight into early
Monday morning.

A significant rainfall of 1 1/2 to 2 inches is likely Wednesday and
Wednesday night, with locally higher amounts possible. The bulk of
the rainfall is currently expected Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. Urban, poor drainage, and low lying flooding is a
significant threat. There is a possibility of flash flooding with a
few of the smaller, and fast responding, rivers and streams
approaching bankfull.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the
air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...FEB/MET
SHORT TERM...JC/MET
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET
EQUIPMENT...


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