953
FXUS61 KOKX 251828
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
228 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds off the Eastern Seaboard this afternoon
into tonight. A warm front moves in late tonight and then moves
northeast away from the region early Wednesday. A cold front
then approaches from the west, moving across late Wednesday
night into early Thursday. High pressure gradually builds in
thereafter, eventually moving over the region late in the day
Friday. A warm front lifts north of the area Saturday. A series
of cold fronts then moves through on Sunday with high pressure
building in for Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the rest of this afternoon, slight changes made to
temperatures, slightly warmer across the coast with downslope NW
flow. Highs closer to 90 for much of the area. Lower dewpoints
in the 50s, making for heat indices right near the actual
temperature.

Winds expected to become more SW for the latter half of this
afternoon and gusty. Clouds are expected to increase for the
remainder of the afternoon but plenty of sun is still expected
as much of the clouds will be higher level cirrus clouds with
some transparency.

For tonight, nearly steady zonal mid level height tendency.
Vort max moves across during the evening, with most of its
energy north of the area. At the surface, high pressure moves
farther offshore. A warm front approaches from the west and
eventually moves into the region. This warm front is forecast to
move northeast of the region early Wednesday.

Some CAMs are depicting a few showers potentially developing
across parts of the region in and around NYC as well as
locations to the north and west. Will only have slight chance
POPs for this. Forecast lows tonight were a blend of MOS
consensus and NBM, ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s for a
majority of the region. It will start to feel more humid as well
as the dewpoints are forecast to rise into the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A deepening upper trough will approach during Wednesday along
with a surface cold front. With the area warm sectored
temperatures Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday`s, except
across the coastal regions as a southwesterly flow will keep
those areas a few degrees cooler. More humid air will also be
moving into the region as dew points rise into the mid 60s.
Maximum heat indices will reach 90 to 95 during peak heating.
With heat indices remaining below 100, a heat advisory is not
expected to the issued at this time.

Showers and thunderstorms develop late day Wednesday, and will
be more likely Wednesday night as a cold front moves into the
region. A few of the storms may become strong with gusty winds,
and a portion of the region, the lower Hudson Valley into
northeastern New Jersey, and New York City have been placed
into a slight risk for severe weather with damaging winds the
primary threat, with a risk of hail, and an isolated tornado.
Also, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.75 to 2.0
inches, and training of storms, the will be a chance of locally
heavy rainfall the the possibility of urban and poor drainage
flooding.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level trough over the Northeast Thursday night pushes
offshore on Friday, allowing for a zonal flow aloft. At the
surface, high pressure builds in as a cold front that pushed
through earlier continues to move east. The high pushes off the
New England Coast late in the day Friday into Friday night,
allowing a warm front to lift north of the area Saturday. An
unsettled pattern sets up Saturday night and Sunday as a series
of cold fronts/surface troughs moves through. Some timing
differences with the models this far out, but for the most part,
they are generally 3 to 6 hours apart in the passage of the
main cold front late in the day Sunday into late Sunday night.
High pressure then builds in for Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be associated with these cold frontal and
surface trough passages with lifted indices below zero, but for
now, limited it to a slight chance for thunder with uncertainty
in how unstable the atmosphere will actually be.

Outside of Sunday, when the area will be warm sectored,
temperatures will be seasonable. A bit of a roller coaster ride
in regards to humidity however as they are expected to be low on
Friday with high pressure building in and a northerly flow
bringing in a less humid air mass. The quick return flow Friday
night and the approach and passage of a warm front into Saturday
will mean humidity levels on the rise, with humid conditions
Saturday and more so into Sunday. They then come down again
after the passage of the cold fronts Sunday, with comfortable
levels for most by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A warm front lifts north of the area tonight as a cold front
approaches Wednesday night.

VFR.

SW winds 10-15 kt at the metro terminals, and around 10 kt at
all other terminals. Gusts to 25 kt possible through early
evening mainly at the coast. All other terminals may see
occasional gusts to 20 kt. Winds diminish tonight and increase
again Wed afternoon.

PROB30 for TS introduced at 30 hr terminals Wed in vicinity of
pre-frontal trof. However, most activity may hold off until 00z
or after. Best chance of Wed afternoon convection will be city
terminals and areas to N and W. Any TSRA that develops may
contain strong gusty winds or hail.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

18z Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the late afternoon, and likely at night, with
MVFR or lower possible. SW wind 15-20 kt G20-25 kt near the
coast.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, MVFR or lower possible early in the
morning in shower and thunderstorms.

Friday: VFR.

Saturday: VFR with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR possible in a chance of shra and tstms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory, SCA, in effect for the ocean zones south
of Long Island tonight through Wednesday. Wanted to see how new
model guidance trends so did not extend SCA into Wednesday
night at this time. However, SCA conditions are quite probable
for the ocean Wednesday night.

With high pressure building offshore, winds will become more SW
along the coast and gusty as well. Ocean gusts 25 kt expected
for tonight and for the South Shore Bays as well, but forecast
just to be occasional for South Shore Bays.

SCA conditions continue on the ocean Wednesday and into
Wednesday night as a strong southwest flow continues ahead of an
approaching cold front. Winds shift to the northwest late
Wednesday night into Thursday behind the cold front and winds
and seas will diminish below SCA levels Thursday morning.

Winds and waves generally remain below SCA criteria from Thursday
night through Saturday night. However, there is the potential for
SCA winds on Saturday as the pressure gradient increases across the
waters. Waves build on the ocean, but shouldn`t reach 5 ft until
around daybreak Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through Wednesday. Showers and
thunderstorms developing late Wednesday afternoon and evening,
ahead of an approaching cold front, may produce locally heavy
rainfall that could produce minor flooding, particularly in
urban and poor drainage areas. Any risk of flash flooding will
likely be localized at this time.

No hydrologic concerns from Thursday night through the
beginning of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a high rip current risk at all local Atlantic facing
beaches today. A high rip current risk is also expected for
Wednesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075-
     080-081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...IRD
MARINE...JM/JP/MET
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...