765
FXUS66 KOTX 161138
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
438 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another round of showers expected for today over the Cascades and
northern mountains. Temperatures will trend cooler into the start
of early next week with the potential for frost in colder pockets
Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the mountains
will be possible each afternoon through midweek with gradual
warming by late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Monday: A deformation band will move South from Southern
BC and bring the next round of showers to the region. The areas of
impacts will mainly be the over the Cascades and northern
mountains. Afternoon convection is possible along the Canadian
border with around 20% chance. Precip amounts are only expected to
be a few hundredths. Highs for the day will be in the upper 50s
and 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and low 40s. Some areas
again have potential for frost but the coverage is less than
previous night. By Monday, the band has slid East. It will shift
the showers out of the Cascades and over the Idaho Panhandle
and eastern third of Washington. Afternoon convection will again
bring a 20% chance of thunderstorms. Highs for the day will be in
the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. /JDC

Tuesday through Saturday: A trough lingers over the region
Tuesday and Wednesday although its influence lessens with time as
this feature weakens. Initially there will be lingering boundary
layer moisture which combined with strong surface heating will
promote afternoon/evening scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. These will be most prevalent over the northern
mountains and Idaho Panhandle. But then as precipitable water
values gradually decline into Wednesday areal coverage will
decrease as well. Thursday through Saturday the region undergoes
more significant warming as southwest flow develops ahead of the
next upper low. This will result in a period of dry weather, with
temperatures increasing through Saturday, with high temperatures
reaching the mid 80s to low 90s. These values would be around 10
degrees above normal. JW

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS: Showers expected as a deformation bands pushes in from
Southern BC across northern WA/ID and central WA. Some embedded
thunderstorms across NE WA and north ID. Have mention of some
-shra for MWH/EAT, but confidence was not high enough to put
mention elsewhere. /JDC

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
There is high confidence in continued VFR conditions through the
day. One potential caveat is there is a 10% chance of MVFR
ceilings to develop at KPUW between 15-18Z.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        62  41  68  44  70  45 /  10  10  30  20  30   0
Coeur d`Alene  59  40  64  44  66  43 /  10  10  30  40  40  10
Pullman        58  39  61  40  66  42 /   0  20  40  20  10   0
Lewiston       68  48  68  49  75  49 /  10  30  40  20  10   0
Colville       60  32  68  36  68  38 /  60  40  50  40  60  20
Sandpoint      59  38  63  43  61  41 /  30  30  50  60  70  30
Kellogg        58  43  59  45  61  44 /  10  10  50  50  50  10
Moses Lake     67  43  73  44  76  48 /  10  20  10  10   0   0
Wenatchee      66  48  70  49  76  52 /  30  30  10   0   0   0
Omak           64  43  73  45  76  48 /  40  50  20  10  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

WA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for Northeast
     Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Western Okanogan County.

&&

$$