528
FXUS66 KOTX 300500
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With the arrival of a upper level disturbance, expect an
increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms in the Cascades
this evening spreading into eastern WA into north Idaho
overnight. Winds will be breezy Sunday afternoon with a renewed
chance of showers and thunderstorms for northeast Washington and
north Idaho. Mountain showers and seasonal temperatures continue
through early next week, followed by drier and much warmer
weather by the end of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Evening update: forecast was updated to increase PoPs for tonight
through Sunday evening. A weak front lifting in tonight will
bring some light rain chances early, trace to a few hundredths.
But radar shows a more robust swath of rain coming up into
southeast WA and models show is lifting north-northeast later
tonight into early Sunday. Then additional shower and t-storm
chances will be found in the heating of the day Sunday. The
highest potential for t-storms remains north and northeast of the
Spokane/C`dA area, but I did increase that risk a bit from the
earlier afternoon forecast package. /Solveig


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Clouds and showers will expand across eastern WA and
north ID tonight into early Sunday, with another resurgence in
Sunday afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances. Some of heavier
rain showers are possible over southeast WA through central ID
tonight, including in the vcnty of PUW/LWS/COE and perhaps
SFF/GEG. Primarily VFR conditions are possible, but local MVFR
conditions are possible. The thunderstorms Sunday PM have the
highest risk north and east of the TAF sites, but there will still
be some risk over GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS. Winds will also be gusty
in the afternoon, gusting near 15-25 mph.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions at our airport through the
period, with low confidence in MVFR conditions in heavier
showers. If there is MVFR conditions the risk looks higher near
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. General aviation pilots will need to monitor
radar for showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        60  80  54  80  54  81 /  30  30   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  59  77  53  76  52  77 /  40  50  10  10   0   0
Pullman        57  77  52  75  51  77 /  60  30   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       67  85  61  85  59  87 /  40  40   0   0   0   0
Colville       53  76  46  77  45  79 /  20  70  30  40  10  10
Sandpoint      55  72  50  73  49  75 /  30  70  30  50  20  20
Kellogg        59  72  55  72  54  74 /  50  70  20  20  10  10
Moses Lake     61  86  55  86  54  86 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      63  82  60  81  57  84 /  20   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           60  85  55  84  54  87 /  40  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$