Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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624 FXUS66 KOTX 170452 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 952 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Tuesday and Wednesday will be cool with periods of rain over north Idaho and the eastern third of Washington. Winds will pick up out of the west on Tuesday and will be widespread across parts of central and eastern Washington. Conditions will trend drier toward the end of the work week, then precipitation chances return for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Wednesday: Chances for showers will increase tonight into tomorrow over the Cascades, eastern third of WA, and the ID Panhandle. Showers in eastern WA and the ID Panhandle will be from precipitation wrapping around a center of low pressure to our southeast, while showers over the Cascades will be caused by another low moving down the West Coast from the Gulf of Alaska, placing the region in a moist, southwesterly flow regime. Precipitation will be light with less than a tenth of an inch expected over the course of the day tomorrow for most locations. The eastern portion of the ID Panhandle bordering Montana may see closer to two tenths of an inch. High temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 60s to low 70s for far eastern WA and north ID to the upper 70s and low 80s for the western Columbia Basin and the Okanogan Valley. Winds will pick up out of the west tomorrow afternoon and evening over the Waterville Plateau, western Columbia Basin, and the Camas Prairie with gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph. Wednesday will be similar to tomorrow as far as temperatures go, but winds won`t be as breezy and showers will be confined to the ID/MT border. Patchy fog may develop tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning after tomorrow`s showers. Thursday through Sunday: Thursday in Friday are looking drier as the low along the West Coast continues to move south and weak ridging builds over the Inland Northwest. High temperatures will remain consistent in the 70s, and lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s. There is still some model disagreement as to what the weekend will look like, but most models are showing some kind of trough redevelop which would likely bring another round of precip. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. A large low pressure system well to our south over Nevada will move into southern Idaho on Tuesday. Bands of showers will continue to rotate north up into SE Washington, the Idaho Panhandle, and far eastern reaches of NE Washington. In addition elevated instability could trigger a few thunderstorms, but with the best chances east of Lewiston and Coeur d`Alene did not mention in any of the TAF`s. Given the scattered nature of the showers, a PROB30 group was used for much of the TAF period for KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS, but amendments are possible for any more organized shower clusters that develop. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: A moist atmosphere combined with elevated instability leads to moderate confidence of increasing showers for SE WA and N Idaho overnight into Tuesday. Some models show some localized heavier showers, but confidence of these impacting the TAF sites KPUW, KLWS, KCOE carries lower confidence. JW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 50 72 49 74 48 75 / 10 30 20 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 50 70 49 73 48 73 / 10 40 30 10 10 0 Pullman 49 64 45 67 44 71 / 40 50 20 10 10 0 Lewiston 54 70 55 75 53 78 / 40 50 20 10 10 0 Colville 44 76 38 77 38 76 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 47 72 46 70 45 71 / 10 50 40 20 10 0 Kellogg 49 66 50 65 49 70 / 30 60 40 30 10 10 Moses Lake 48 79 48 78 46 78 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 55 77 56 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 47 83 52 82 51 81 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$