Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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194 FXUS66 KOTX 280351 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 851 PM PDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Tuesday will see a return of showers and thunderstorms to Eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle. A few storms could be strong with gusty outflow winds in southeastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Cool and showery conditions continue through the end of the week with drier and warmer conditions at the start of the upcoming weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: Upper level trough approaching the northwest through Tuesday morning is producing elevated instability ahead of it. As of 830 PM some thunderstorm activity was developing well south of the region across Eastern Oregon. Several of the CAM`s models are showing elevated convection increasing and moving north into Tuesday morning as moisture and elevated instability lift north. The main activity is shown by the CAM`s models to track from the Tri-Cities area up through the Upper Columbia Basin, Spokane area, and NE Washington into the North Idaho Panhandle, mainly after midnight. POP`s have been increased to reflect the latest NBM guidance. With Elevated CAPE of only 100-200 J/KG and only weak atmospheric lift through the morning, confidence is low on whether nocturnal thunderstorms will develop or not this far north. But given there is some instability to work with have added a slight chance for the overnight and morning hours for the Ritzville, Davenport, Spokane, and La Crosse areas. No changes to the afternoon or evening thunderstorm forecast on Tuesday. The latest 00z CAM`s models show the best potential for stronger storms over the mountains of NE Washington into the N Idaho Panhandle, as well as over the Camas Prairie into Shoshone county. JW && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Mid to high clouds will continue to filter through the region as the ridge begins to slowly be replaced with the next trough system. VFR conditions will prevail through 0z Wednesday. Weather changes arrive late tonight into Tuesday for an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms over eastern Washington and north Idaho along with breezy winds. Thunderstorms will be capable of hail and gusty outflow winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence for VFR conditions to continue across the TAF sites. Low confidence on showers impacting TAF sites after 12z. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 52 74 45 62 39 65 / 20 30 10 20 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 51 73 45 59 38 62 / 10 40 30 30 20 0 Pullman 52 71 44 58 37 61 / 20 40 40 10 20 0 Lewiston 57 80 52 66 45 70 / 10 40 60 10 20 0 Colville 45 73 38 61 31 66 / 10 70 40 60 20 10 Sandpoint 48 71 45 56 38 61 / 10 60 60 60 40 10 Kellogg 53 74 48 55 39 59 / 0 40 70 50 40 10 Moses Lake 53 78 43 67 39 72 / 10 20 0 10 0 0 Wenatchee 56 73 45 63 43 69 / 0 10 0 10 0 0 Omak 51 76 42 66 39 71 / 0 20 10 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$