908
FXUS66 KOTX 042223
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
323 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An exiting system will lead to a ridge pattern building over the
Pacific Northwest. It will bring a significant warming trend
through the weekend. Very warm temperatures up into the mid 80s
to mid 90s is expected by Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Lingering shower activity associated with the system
from today will slowly taper off over the Idaho Panhandle. Winds
will ease as the area stabilizes behind the cold front. Overnight
lows will dip into the 30s and low 40s.

Wednesday through Monday: The ensembles continue to show a strong
ridge over the region being supported by a four corners high
pressure center. Temperatures will build a few degrees warmer
than the previous. The warmest are expected to be over the weekend
with highs reaching 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal. There
will be plenty of sunshine. Remember to stay hydrated and wear
sunscreen. Also the water temperatures are still frigid. Wednesday
highs will in the upper 60s and 70s. By the weekend, the highs
will be in the upper 80s and 90s. Overnight lows will be in the
upper 40s and low 60s.

Ensembles are indicating a ripple int he ridge on Saturday that
could lead to some showers and weak thunderstorms chances during
the late afternoon and into Sunday morning. The best chance will
be over Southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Any storm
would have to overcome some decent inhibiting factors. The
potential is enough to mention in the forecast.

By the start of next week, the ridge is expected to begin to
weaken and shift East as a Gulf of Alaska Low begins to press a
trough into the coast. It will lead to a cooldown and increasing
precip chances by midweek. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Shower band is currently moving East over GEG-SFF-COE-
PUW-LWS. Ceilings will lower down to between 2-4 kft agl with MVFR
conditions for KPUW- KGEG- KSFF- KCOE- KCQV- KDEW- KSFF through
the early afternoon. Cold front passage is expected around mid
afternoon. This will bring down drier air east of the Cascades
with rain decreasing across much of eastern Washington. Westerly
winds will also increase this afternoon with a tightening pressure
gradient. Winds will peak late this afternoon into the early
afternoon with airports along the Cascades and exposed areas of
the basin expected to see gusts of 25-35 kts, including at KEAT-
KMWH-KEPH-KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW. Winds will calm as area stabilizes
behind the cold front. A dry, warming trend is expected through
the rest of the week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence in ceilings in the through 20z remains moderate.
Guidance is in good agreement with ceilings between 1500-3000 ft
agl at GEG-SFF-COE-PUW and at smaller airports like KCQV-KDEW-
KSZT. There is a 20-30% chance that ceilings will lower below
1,000 ft agl with IFR conditions through this morning. /JDC

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        42  69  44  79  51  84 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  43  66  44  76  51  82 /  30   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  66  44  76  49  82 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       53  76  52  86  58  91 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       35  69  39  78  45  85 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      41  65  42  74  47  81 /  60   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        47  65  47  76  54  82 /  50   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     43  76  47  85  53  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      45  75  51  83  57  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           41  75  47  82  52  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$