357
FXUS66 KOTX 052245
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
345 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather is expected over the next couple days as high
pressure builds over the region. The weekend will be very warm
with afternoon temperatures well into the 80s and 90s. A weak
weather system Saturday night into Sunday looks to bring a chance
for showers and possibly strong thunderstorms to the region.
Above normal temperatures continues into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Wednesday night through Saturday: Temperatures will warm across the
Inland Northwest over the next several days as a flat ridge builds
from the south. By Friday, a deep low will move into the eastern
Pacific and amply the ridge over the Pacific Northwest Friday into
Saturday. As this ridge amplifies, temperatures will warm into some of
the warmest values the region has seen this year with 80s to low 90s
on Friday and then into the mid 80s to mid 90s by Saturday. Followed
by several days of near to below average temperatures, many people
will not be acclimated to this level of heat yet. Be prepared for
these hot temperatures if you are heading outside this weekend.
Water temperatures are currently in the 40s and 50s across the
Inland Northwest, so if you choose to spend time near or on water
please use caution and keep an eye on children. While it might seem
like a good idea to cool off near the water, unplanned immersions
can quickly become life threatening due to cold water shock,
incapacitation, or hypothermia.

Saturday night through Sunday: This will be the period to keep an
eye on over the next couple days as models continue to show this
trough progressing eastward across the Pacific Northwest on Sunday.
This will bring increasing cloud cover and instability to the region
Saturday night to Sunday. There still remains a good amount of
uncertainty in the exact timing and strength of this shortwave, but
this will bring the potential for strong thunderstorms across the
region early Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon. Although
this is one of stronger solutions, the deterministic GFS
continues to show the potential for stronger convection with
surface based CAPE up to 1500 J/kg and 35 to 50 knots of 0-6km
bulk shear across the southern Idaho Panhandle by Sunday
afternoon. We will continue to monitor this potential.

Outside of the risk for convection, the increase in clouds will work
to keep temperatures warm Saturday night. Low temperatures Saturday
night will flirt with near-record warm values for some spots across
the region (lows in the low to mid 60s) as these clouds work against
radiative cooling effects. Temperatures on Sunday will cool by about
5 degrees.

Monday through Wednesday: Models continue to diverge on the forecast
scenarios through the middle of next week. While there is general
agreement that temperatures will stay warm as the ridge attempts to
rebuild into the Pacific Northwest, there are significant
differences on the overall strength of the ridge. About 50% of
ensembles show the ridge re-amplifying with the return of widespread
temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s. The other 50% show a weaker
ridge, with relatively cooler temperatures (although still above
normal) and breezy afternoon winds. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions with terrain driven winds are expected
across the Inland Northwest as high pressure builds. A weak
weather system moving across British Columbia will allow mid to
high level clouds to stream across the region tonight through
Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains high for VFR conditions across most of the area
today.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        46  79  52  85  55  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  76  52  82  54  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        44  76  50  82  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       52  86  58  91  62  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       39  78  45  84  49  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      43  74  49  80  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        48  75  55  80  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     46  86  54  90  57  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  84  58  88  63  92 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           47  84  53  89  57  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$