463
FXUS64 KOUN 310558
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

MCS is expected to exit southeast this morning with a few residual
showers and isolated thunderstorms that could impact portions of
central into southeast Oklahoma through midday. Otherwise, much of
the area should see mainly dry conditions through the afternoon and
early evening. By late in the day, at least some scattered
convection is expected to once again develop across the High plains
to our west. However, lack of low level jet and limited instability
should limit development of another complex of storms for the
overnight period with perhaps just a few isolated showers Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Somewhat better flow then develops during the day Saturday with more
widespread afternoon convection expected through the High plains.
This will then move east/southeast with one or more complexes of
storms that will move across the area Saturday night. This again
should be exiting east/southeast Oklahoma Sunday morning leaving
much of the area dry through the day. Depending on location of the
areas of heavy rainfall and with what has occurred over the past
several days, may need additional flood watch/s.

This pattern looks to continue into the early part of next week,
although perhaps a bit farther north as better flow shifts north. We
will also see a gradual warming trend as models slowly develop upper
ridge out into the Plains from the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A thunderstorm complex will move across western Oklahoma this
evening and early Friday. Very gusty winds will be the severe
hazard as these storms move southeast into southern Oklahoma
later. Otherwise, most TAF sites will have MVFR or IFR conditions
overnight and for much of the day Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  78  63  85  67 /  50  20  10  30
Hobart OK         82  62  86  66 /  40  30  20  30
Wichita Falls TX  81  66  86  68 /  50  20  20  30
Gage OK           82  60  86  63 /  30  40  20  40
Ponca City OK     77  61  84  65 /  60  10  10  30
Durant OK         80  65  85  68 /  90  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for OKZ033>039-044-045-
     050>052.

TX...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09