Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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554 FXUS64 KOUN 271710 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1210 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Our brief respite from storms will persist through the day today, but we will return to an active pattern beginning tonight. The surface boundary has pushed into north Texas and through the DFW metroplex. But mid 70s dewpoints lurk just south of the metroplex. Isentropic lift of this moisture over the frontal surface begins this evening and this looks to produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms - the first of many rounds of thunderstorms over the next few days. We will have a high amount of elevated instability with all models showing at least 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE in western north Texas (although the NAM`s 6000 J/kg MUCAPE bullseye seems rather excessive). There is enough instability that it will be possible to see some isolated elevated severe storms with large hail being the primary threat overnight if we get any severe storms to develop. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 418 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 The thunderstorm potential that develops overnight will continue into the day on Tuesday. By 00Z, a few (albeit a minority) of the models bring the surface boundary north into our north Texas counties, and with that, the GFS and HRRR actually have very little surface based CIN by 00Z/29. We agree with the SPC outlook at this point with a marginal risk of severe storms in our north Texas counties on Tuesday, but that could increase if the warm front (and lack of surface CIN) lifts as far north as our Texas counties. Meanwhile the easterly flow north of the warm front giving upslope flow into the High Plains of Colorado and New Mexico will aid in additional development of storms which will then likely approach the areas as a thunderstorm complex Tuesday night. Wednesday and Wednesday night look to have another round of storms develop over the High Plains on Wednesday and move toward the area Wednesday night. Later in the week, predictability becomes more complicated as the weather will be influenced by what happens prior, but the overall pattern looks similar with zonal to slight northwesterly flow aloft, and enough easterly/upslope component of the surface flow onto the High Plains to produce thunderstorms that then would grow upscale into a storm complex approaching the area each evening/overnight. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Clear skies and light winds this afternoon and evening. Will see an increase in cloud cover overnight. Developing waa will also aid in an increase in showers and thunderstorms initially late this evening along/near the Red river and then farther north across the area toward morning and continuing through the end of the forecast period. Some MVFR conditions will accompany this activity. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 91 64 81 62 / 0 20 40 50 Hobart OK 94 64 84 62 / 0 30 50 70 Wichita Falls TX 94 67 84 65 / 0 30 50 60 Gage OK 91 60 84 58 / 10 20 30 70 Ponca City OK 89 62 82 61 / 0 20 20 30 Durant OK 93 67 83 65 / 0 30 40 50 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...30