Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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862 FXUS63 KPAH 221936 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The heat will continue to be the main concern through Tuesday. Heat index values peak over 100 in portions of the area Sunday and Monday, and then may hit 105 or higher on Tuesday. - A weak boundary will provide limited coverage of showers and isolated storms to the region late tonight through Sunday afternoon. - A greater chance for showers and storms arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday. - A brief break from the above normal temperatures is expected on Thursday before we warm back up to end the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 500mb energy moving across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will carve out a trough across the Northeast U.S. through Monday. Meanwhile, the upper ridge parked across our area will gradually sink southward, becoming centered across Texas. A weak boundary will move south through the cwa on Sunday. Ahead of it, a weakening band of showers and possibly an isolated storm will push into the region late tonight through Sunday morning. Not really sure how far through the region this even makes it before completely washing out. Additional isolated activity may develop during the afternoon, primarily across west Kentucky. The Pennyrile region and areas near the TN border are most favored for this afternoon convection. The majority of guidance tends to keep development focused southeast of our cwa. If any convection happens to develop Sunday afternoon, then a few stronger storms couldn`t be ruled out. MLCAPE will likely range close to 2000 J/kg along with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. Although some guidance hints at higher instability closer to 3000 j/kg with dewpoints a bit higher as well. Deep layer shear around 25 kts is expected. Mid level lapse rates are quite poor, so stronger winds may be the primary concern. Confidence in actually seeing the redevelopment is rather low. Somewhat drier air works into the region Sunday night into Monday, with dewpoints lowering through the 60s especially across the north. Some guidance suggests higher dewpoints in the 70s remain across southeast Missouri on Monday, potentially even across far southwest Kentucky. 500mb heights will rise some as the ridge expands a bit to the northeast again. 850mb temps may be a degree or so warmer on Monday which coupled with more sunshine will mean high temps likely a touch higher than Sunday. Tuesday continues to look like the warmest day though with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Have decided to hold off on any heat headlines at this time. However, southern portions of the region closer to the AR and TN borders will need to be monitored for Sunday if the higher dewpoints end up panning out. Right now we have 100 to 105 for areas along and south of a Cape Girardeau to Madisonville line. On Monday, the area most likely to reach near 105 is across the Missouri Ozark Foothills. Then Tuesday much of the region will likely flirt with or even exceed 105. Our best chance for rain this week looks to be Tuesday night through Wednesday as disturbances migrate down across the Ohio Valley. One or two MCS`s may impact portions of the region during this time. Temperatures Wednesday may end up being the coolest of the entire week due to more plentiful cloud cover and potentially rain cooled air. There may be some severe concern during this time period as indicated by the 5% severe probs via the CSU-MLP. However, it does indicate the greatest severe threat remains well north of our region on Tuesday and then well east of us on Wednesday. Beyond the mid week system, it appears a slight reprieve from the above normal temperatures and higher humidity levels may occur on Thursday. Thereafter, the ridge appears to build back in Friday into Saturday with a return of highs well into the 90s. A frontal boundary may provide some relief at some point next weekend, accompanied by our next chance for rain. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 SCT-BKN cu deck this afternoon along with a southwest wind sustained around 8-12 kts. Some gusts of 15-20 kts likely, especially across the north. Band of showers enters the northwest after 08z and should gradually decay as it spreads southeast. Thus not sure how much southern areas will receive Sunday morning. Primarily mid cloud associated with it. Winds switch around to westerly and then northwesterly through the day. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...SP