Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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985 FXUS63 KPAH 191109 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 609 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainly dry conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast through Saturday with highs around 90. - Patchy fog is possible early this morning and again late tonight across portions of the region. - Better chances of showers and storms begin to arrive late Sunday into early next week along with near to slightly below normal temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 An upper level ridge will begin to build into the FA as a 500 mb low digs across California. The synoptic amplification will eventually translate to a return to more humid conditions by Friday through the weekend as model guidance now shows dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. MaxTs will also be unseasonably warm in the upper 80s to lower 90s. As a series of 500 mb impulses round the ridge, an isolated shower cannot be ruled out Friday morning and again Saturday morning, but overall most of the FA likely remains dry due to the lack of forcing. The only other concern is for some patchy fog early this morning and again late tonight. By Sunday, model guidance is in good agreement in showing the aformentioned 500 mb low ejecting across the central Plains. The increase in PVA and forcing for ascent will mean a better chance of showers and storms Sunday into Monday, but QPF amounts overall still do not look terribly impressive to overcome the ongoing drought conditions. Uncertainty does begin to increase towards the middle of the week with the timing of a cold front. The general consensus among model ensembles is to dig a deeper trough across the central CONUS that would push a cold front through sometimes in the late Monday to Tuesday timeframe, resulting is a return to near to slightly below normal temps. NBM currently has maxTs progged in the lower 80s across the entire FA by Tuesday, but there is about a 6 degree spread among the box & whisker plots due to lower forecast confidence. Another factor will be the potential development of a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. A few of the deterministic models bring some of the tropical moisture towards the FA by next weekend. Meanwhile, the mean on the ensembles would currently keep any moisture suppressed to the southeast. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 602 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 High pressure in place across the Quad State region will allow for good flying conditions. The exception will be some ground fog late at night/early morning, but that will quickly burn off after sunrise. Wind will remain light. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...KC