023
FXUS63 KPAH 171138
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
638 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and storms possible today and on Tuesday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures today through Wednesday followed
  by return of mid 90`s by late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis this morning
depicts a ridge of high pressure across the southeast and into
the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians. Lower heights were
found across the southern plains where weak cyclonic flow was
evident. An upper level wave/PV anomaly is expected to lift
north from the northern GoM today with a 300-200mb jet streak
providing increasing divergence aloft by the afternoon during
peak heating. Scattered showers and storms will develop in
response to increased ascent in a moist environment
characterized by a plum of PW values in excess of 2 inches. The
NBM/HREF both favor the western half of the PAH CWA for better
PoPs (likely PoPs) which would include SE MO/SW IL/far W KY.
This makes sense given the expected synoptic forcing and better
low level moisture flux, although chances will exist across the
rest of the area as well.

Coverage should largely wane with loss of solar heating,
although a healthy 20-30 knot 925-850 flow may feed isolated
activity into the early overnight period. Moving into Tuesday,
yet another wave/jet streak is progged to lift into the region
providing ascent within a ribbon of high theta-e air. More
showers and storms would be the result, although coverage may be
a bit lower without any pronounced sfc convergence and
increased heights as the center of the ridge moves into the
Appalachians region. Temperatures on Tuesday will be cooler
(compared to the past few days) with highs in the upper 80`s to
lower 90`s. The upper ridge moves north a bit, expands and
builds Wednesday into Thursday. This will increase heights
across the region bringing drier weather, and an increase in
temperatures especially late this week when the center of the
ridge sets up across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures climb
back into the 90`s this weekend with mid to upper 90`s certainly
possible. Guidance continues to favor the ridge breaking down
as lower heights move across the plains Sunday into early next
week. This will bring chances of rain back into the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 638 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

An upper lvl disturbance will bring increasing cloud cover today
and chances of SHRA/TSRA this afternoon. Confidence on
placement of TSRA is still low but best chances would be near
CGI where VCTS was included. Otherwise, better chances of SHRA
exists at CGI and PAH with reductions in visibility possible.
Elsewhere, SHRA remains possible this afternoon. Light winds
will increase to between 10-15 knots this afternoon with gusts
up to 20 knots. Clouds will linger through the overnight
period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD