502
FXUS63 KPAH 160805
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
305 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Triple digit or close to it heat index today through Monday,
  and again heading into next weekend.

- Daily storm chances Monday thru Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Upper level ridge of high pressure is anchored across the southeast
this morning with upstream troughing across the northern
plains. A surface high across New England will move southeast
into the Atlantic waters today allowing sfc winds to continue to
veer toward the south. Similar to yesterday, temperatures will
be warm, if not a degree or two warmer. Highs in the low to mid
90`s will be found area wide today. Increasing southerly flow
will advect higher dewpoints into the region, with localized
pooling possible as well. This will send heat indices to 100 or
just shy of 105 degrees by the afternoon. An afternoon shower or
storm is possible across portions of western Kentucky but most
areas should remain dry.

Warm temperatures will continue through this week. The upper
ridge will remain parked across the mid Atlantic through the
first half of the week before becoming elongated and spreading
westward by mid to late week. A couple afternoon showers and
storms remain a possibility Mon-Wed. The best chances for
rain/storms will be west of the Mississippi River. The increased
cloud cover and rain/storms will keep temperatures just a bit
cooler (upper 80`s to lower 90`s Mon-Tue) before increasing
heights drive temperatures back up into the mid 90`s Wed through
Sun. The upper level high is expected to break down this coming
weekend providing additional chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Light E-ESE winds overnight will become S-SSW at 5-10 kts after
15z as high pressure to our northeast shifts to the south. SCT-
BKN diurnal CU will develop during the 15-18z period,
persisting through 00-03z Monday. Cannot rule out a few stray
showers or thunderstorms developing during the heat of the
afternoon/early evening, but confidence in coverage and timing
was too low to include at this time. Late Sunday night, winds
will relax, remaining southerly, under passing high cirrus
clouds.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for
     INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DWS