Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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170 FXUS63 KPAH 171904 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions with a warming trend in temperatures are forecast through the rest of the work week and the first half of the weekend. - Dry relative humidity levels will lead to slightly elevated fire weather concerns through Thursday. - A weak cold front will bring a slight chance of showers Sunday into Monday, along with slightly cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Dry and warm conditions will continue today and Wednesday as the region remains under steady and dry NE flow. This is due to an elongated area of high pressure stretching across the Southern Plains into the Midwest and the tropical disturbance off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The dry air will lead to minimum RH values of 30-40% over the region this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. For areas that have missed out on the recent rain, a slightly elevated risk of uncontrolled fire spread will exist. However, fire weather concerns will be tempered by light surface winds. High temperatures will be warm by September standards, in the middle to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. For the latter half of the work week into Saturday, H5 heights will rise as surface ridging expands eastward. This will lead to a warming trend in temperatures. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows falling into the lower to middle 60s. With surface flow becoming southerly, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to creep into the area, resulting in dew point temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 60s as well. A change to a slightly cooler and perhaps more unsettled period is forecast beginning Sunday into early next week. Model guidance is in rather uncertain in the progression of a surface cold front into the region during this time. It may get close enough to kick off some isolated showers Sunday into Monday, but it does not look to be a washout by any stretch. With additional cloud cover, temperatures will fall a bit by Monday, with highs in the lower 80s forecast. Long range ensemble guidance is split between a more zonal and active pattern and a return of ridging and warm/dry conditions for next week`s synoptic pattern, so overall confidence in this part of the forecast is lower than normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Light northeast surface flow will continue through this afternoon, with winds becoming calm or light and variable overnight. With increasing low-level moisture, areas of fog development are likely again at CGI, PAH, and MVN in the predawn hours Wednesday. Some IFR or LIFR restrictions are possible at CGI. Fog will quickly mix out after 13z Wednesday, with light NE flow continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS