673
FXUS63 KPAH 251738
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid today with a Heat Advisory in affect for
  portions of the area that will see heat indices at or above
  105.

- Chances for showers and storms mid week bring a brief respite
  from the heat. Storms will be pulsey in nature but some could
  be strong to severe, with mainly a wind threat.

- Hot and humid again on Saturday with heat indices of 105-110.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

A hot and humid day is in store for today with highs in the mid to
upper 90s and heat indices of 100 to 115 (SEMO). A Heat Advisory is
in effect for portions of the area with heat indices above 105 from
Noon to 8 PM today. There is a weak chance for some afternoon
convection to develop along an outflow boundary left over from a
large MCS that moved through the western Great Lakes. Instability is
sufficient to strong but shear is weak, and so storms will likely be
pulsey in nature with damaging winds possible with the collapse of
stronger storms.

Mainly zonal flow aloft yields to a shortwave trof moving through on
Wednesday. This will push a cold front through the area and bring
with it a little bit of short lived respite from the heat. The best
chance for rain is also on Wednesday with more pulse storms possible
throughout the day. Confidence in timing and location are low. Some
may be strong to severe though with damaging winds the main
concern with the collapse of stronger storms.

Thursday will be nice, relatively speaking, with less humidity
and highs in the mid to upper 80s. This will be short lived
however as temperatures climb back into the low to mid 90s on
Friday. Saturday will be another hot and humid day with highs in
the mid to upper 90s and heat indices of 105-110. The potential
for some convection on Saturday could work to dampen the heat
threat some. Another front looks to move through Sunday morning
with convection chances Saturday and Sunday. Slightly cooler
conditions on Sunday and Monday with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s then hot again Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Fairly benign weather across the terminals early this afternoon
with just some cu developing in the better moisture across MO.
Closely watching convection to our north to see how far it will
make it into our region. There is a nice outflow boundary
heading south from that complex of storms, that continues to
trigger new storm development. If any convection reached KMVN or
KEVV, it would be later this afternoon.

Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance will move in from the
west and possibly cause some additional convection to develop
near KCGI late this afternoon and into early this evening. The
rest of the area could see possible storms through the evening
as this feature moves east. Then, another round of storms is
likely sometime during the morning hours on Wednesday.
Confidence on the timing of all of this convection is low.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ075>078-
     080>086-088>090-092>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-085-086.
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KYZ001>009.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...CW