862
FXUS63 KPAH 221936
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
236 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The heat will continue to be the main concern through Tuesday. Heat
  index values peak over 100 in portions of the area Sunday and
  Monday, and then may hit 105 or higher on Tuesday.

- A weak boundary will provide limited coverage of showers and isolated
  storms to the region late tonight through Sunday afternoon.

- A greater chance for showers and storms arrives Tuesday night into
  Wednesday.

- A brief break from the above normal temperatures is expected
  on Thursday before we warm back up to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

500mb energy moving across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes will
carve out a trough across the Northeast U.S. through Monday.
Meanwhile, the upper ridge parked across our area will gradually
sink southward, becoming centered across Texas. A weak boundary will
move south through the cwa on Sunday. Ahead of it, a weakening band
of showers and possibly an isolated storm will push into the region
late tonight through Sunday morning. Not really sure how far through
the region this even makes it before completely washing out.
Additional isolated activity may develop during the afternoon,
primarily across west Kentucky. The Pennyrile region and areas near
the TN border are most favored for this afternoon convection. The
majority of guidance tends to keep development focused southeast of
our cwa.

If any convection happens to develop Sunday afternoon, then a few
stronger storms couldn`t be ruled out. MLCAPE will likely range
close to 2000 J/kg along with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s.
Although some guidance hints at higher instability closer to 3000
j/kg with dewpoints a bit higher as well. Deep layer shear around 25
kts is expected. Mid level lapse rates are quite poor, so stronger
winds may be the primary concern. Confidence in actually seeing the
redevelopment is rather low.

Somewhat drier air works into the region Sunday night into Monday,
with dewpoints lowering through the 60s especially across the north.
Some guidance suggests higher dewpoints in the 70s remain across
southeast Missouri on Monday, potentially even across far southwest
Kentucky. 500mb heights will rise some as the ridge expands a
bit to the northeast again. 850mb temps may be a degree or so
warmer on Monday which coupled with more sunshine will mean high
temps likely a touch higher than Sunday. Tuesday continues to
look like the warmest day though with highs reaching the mid to
upper 90s.

Have decided to hold off on any heat headlines at this time.
However, southern portions of the region closer to the AR and TN
borders will need to be monitored for Sunday if the higher dewpoints
end up panning out. Right now we have 100 to 105 for areas along and
south of a Cape Girardeau to Madisonville line. On Monday, the area
most likely to reach near 105 is across the Missouri Ozark
Foothills. Then Tuesday much of the region will likely flirt with or
even exceed 105.

Our best chance for rain this week looks to be Tuesday night through
Wednesday as disturbances migrate down across the Ohio Valley. One
or two MCS`s may impact portions of the region during this time.
Temperatures Wednesday may end up being the coolest of the entire
week due to more plentiful cloud cover and potentially rain cooled
air. There may be some severe concern during this time period as
indicated by the 5% severe probs via the CSU-MLP. However, it
does indicate the greatest severe threat remains well north of
our region on Tuesday and then well east of us on Wednesday.

Beyond the mid week system, it appears a slight reprieve from the
above normal temperatures and higher humidity levels may occur on
Thursday. Thereafter, the ridge appears to build back in Friday into
Saturday with a return of highs well into the 90s. A frontal
boundary may provide some relief at some point next weekend,
accompanied by our next chance for rain.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

SCT-BKN cu deck this afternoon along with a southwest wind
sustained around 8-12 kts. Some gusts of 15-20 kts likely,
especially across the north. Band of showers enters the
northwest after 08z and should gradually decay as it spreads
southeast. Thus not sure how much southern areas will receive
Sunday morning. Primarily mid cloud associated with it. Winds
switch around to westerly and then northwesterly through the
day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...SP