Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
293 FXUS63 KPAH 241622 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1122 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible today, mainly over southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. A few severe storms with a damaging wind threat cannot be ruled out. - A stubborn upper low will keep chances of showers in the forecast Wednesday through next Monday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible, especially in the heat of the day. - The remnants of a tropical system may merge with the upper low and bring a chance of heavy rainfall Thursday through at least Saturday. Breezy conditions will also be possible. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A cold front will pass eastward across the region through early afternoon. The latest HRRR is not very bullish on additional convection developing ahead of it, but at least some scattered storms will be possible over southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of west Kentucky around midday. Shear will be fairly healthy, so if there is any substantial sunshine ahead of the front through midday, a few severe storms with mainly a damaging wind threat will be possible. A small chance of showers will continue behind the front this afternoon and tonight, as a large upper low descends on the Quad State. The upper low will meander about the region through the weekend and should eventually push east of the Quad State by next Tuesday. The presence of the cold core aloft will keep at least small chances of showers and heat of the day thunderstorms in the forecast each day through at least next Monday. There remains some uncertainty with the location of the upper low, as it interacts with the remnants of a tropical storm Thursday through Saturday. The latest idea is for the tropical system to lift north through Georgia and then eventually be drawn westward into the upper low over the Quad State. Copious mid and upper-level moisture will stream over the Quad State Thursday through Saturday. However, there is some potential that the low-level moisture could be trapped on the east side of the Appalachians, which could limit the heavy rainfall threat across the Quad State. Regardless, the current WPC QPF from Wednesday night through next Monday is generally 3-4" throughout the region. Given the recent rains across the region, heavy rains of that magnitude could result in some flooding issues across the region. Stay tuned! Given the persistent upper low over the region, and lingering low-level moisture, diurnal temperature ranges will be stunted through the period. In general, high temperatures will be a few degrees below normal, and low temperatures will be a few degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1121 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 As a cold front moves through the region, widespread shower activity is exiting the region to the east. However, widespread MVFR to low VFR cigs will persist through this afternoon at the terminals. Some clearing and lifting of cigs is possible tonight, but this will allow for fog development during the 06-13z window, especially at fog-favored sites like CGI. Additionally, MVFR cigs will push southward into the MVN/EVV/OWB areas in the 09-12z window Wednesday and persist through the rest of the forecast period. Winds will be mainly from the W at 8-12 kts, relaxing under 5 kts tonight from the NW, then becoming N to NE AOA 5 kts after 12z. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DRS AVIATION...DWS