Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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824 FXUS63 KPAH 211932 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity continue to be the main story through early next week. Heat index values around 100 this weekend, will peak around 105 by Tuesday. - A weak cold front may spark a few showers or storms late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon. - A greater chance for showers and storms arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday with another cold front. It looks like we finally get a brief break from the highs in the 90s and higher humidity mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Surface and upper level high pressure reside across the region today. The ridge will get supressed southward by later this weekend as a shortwave passes across the Great Lakes region and moves into New England on Sunday. This will help drag a weak frontal boundary down into our area late Saturday night into Sunday. Convergence along the boundary doesn`t look especially great and the main upper level forcing is displaced well northeast of us. The best wind fields aloft are also to our east. Initially it looks like a decaying band of showers (maybe an isolated storm or two) may spread southeast across the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Behind this activity, there may be some redevelopment during the afternoon as instability increases. The 12z suite of guidance isn`t overly impressive with it, and even the notoriously robust FV3 model struggles to develop much aside from isolated storms over west Kentucky. SPC has our eastern half in a marginal risk for severe on Sunday. Bulk shear may sneak close to 25 kts in our east, so combined with the instability and moisture present, can`t argue against the marginal if a few storms can actually fire up. Looks like any storms would quickly transition southeast of our cwa by early evening. The upper ridge will build back northeast into the mid Mississippi Valley early next week, with 850mb temps peaking around 21-22C by Tuesday. Afterwards, a shortwave dips down across the Ohio Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday. There appears to be better forcing with this feature, so the frontal boundary associated with it should produce more widespread showers and storms compared with the Sunday system. Wind fields don`t appear especially strong, but another marginal setup for severe could materialize. The CSU MLP probabilities generate higher severe probs to our north on Tuesday and then well east of our area on Wednesday, which seems reasonable at this point. Temperatures will remain above normal through Tuesday, with highs largely in the low to mid 90s, but we may push into the upper 90s on Tuesday. Humidity levels will be highest on Sunday and Tuesday, when low to mid 70 dewpoints are possible. More cloud cover on Sunday should keep temperatures several degrees cooler than Saturday, but with higher dewpoints present the heat index will be similar if not a degree or so higher even. Heat Advisory headlines may end up being needed early next week, especially on Tuesday when heat index readings may approach or exceed 105. A somewhat cooler and drier airmass is forecast to move down into the Ohio Valley late next week. Currently it looks like highs in the upper 80s on Thursday with dewpoints only in the low to mid 60s. Beyond that, the ridge may build back in next weekend with a return of highs in the 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1204 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 SCT cu field with bases around 5-6kft today will dissipate this evening and then develop again by late morning on Saturday. Can`t rule out some patchy ground fog again late tonight, mainly at the fog prone terminals (KMVN/KCGI). Guidance isn`t hinting at it as much as the past couple of nights, but given the calm winds think its still possible. Winds will be light and variable today, calm tonight, and then SW around 6-10 kts by late Saturday morning. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight for INZ081-082-085>088. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...SP