Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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761 FXUS63 KPAH 241737 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - After a welcomed respite from the oppressive heat/humidity today, Heat indices threaten to approach or exceed 105 degree Advisory levels Tuesday. - A cold front`s Tuesday night approach and Wednesday passage will bring a chance for strong to potentially severe storms with it. - Another respite from the heat and humidity comes Thursday before temperatures and heat indices start to bump up again by week`s end. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The recently passed frontal boundary is now to our south/east and it has drawn down dew points and taken most/if not all the 70+ dews with it. They may linger and hover over our southern and western CWA borders today, but should not rise much/if any further, while in our north, there may be yet another 2-3 degree drawndown into the mid 60s over the course of the day. This will improve the apparent temperature for most with still toasty highs in the lower half 90s today. The exception will be the Ozarks, where a few 100 degree Heat Indices are not entirely out of reach. Surface high pressure shifts eastward tonight and with the gradient pivot, return flow south to southwesterlies will initiate and begin to increase dew points and temperatures heading into and thru the day Tuesday. That`ll end up being our warmest and most uncomfortable day of the past several, with the models consistently hammering 22C H8 temps and highs in the mid-upper 90s as dew points return to the low-mid 70s over at least our western half of the CWA. That translates to Heat Indices reaching into the triple digits over most of the FA, with our western half seeing Advisory level 105s approached or just exceeded. This too has been a consistent signal so after collaboration, we`ll go ahead and issue a Heat Advisory for Tuesday afternoon for all counties along and west of the MS River. The next cold front takes shape and approaches with its attendant convection late Tuesday night, poised for a daytime Wednesday passage. As height falls begin Tuesday night, and the front drops this direction, an active/ongoing MCS to the north drops with it, and spreads Pops but also its blow-off convective cloud shield into our CWA. Bulk shear increases into the 25-30 kts range, but lapse rates are challenged at about 5C/KM. All said, the anticipated Marginal risk has materialized for our northern CWA counties, with emphasis on marginal given its late night arrival. And similarly, while the cloud shield`s lay-out may muddy up our ability to destabilize with daytime heating Wednesday (modeled MUCAPEs are detained AOB 2000 Joules for the most part), the passage of the upper trof and reflected surface front should be enough to overcome the still retardant lapse rates of 5-6C/KM and cloud hampered surface heated instability to fire up convective chances again, including what`s probably going to be at least another Marginal risk translated with the front across the remainder of our CWA as it makes its passage. High PW`s support heavy rain potential as well, so we concur with WPC`s continued Marginal risk of exceeding FFG until the front clears. After fropa, CP high pressure from Canada draws in refreshingly cooler and drier air for Thursday. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, but dew points will drop thru the 60s and the model trends for 50s dew points are increasing, at least for our northern counties. The high shifts to the east Friday, but the 60s dew points hold another day, even as temps return to near normal highs around 90. This commences the week ending warmup, with low-mid 90s slated for Saturday as 70 degree dew points reemerge at least in our south. Another fropa over the weekend could limit that to just the first half of the weekend, however, as we return closer to seasonal norms again for day 7. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The TAFs are VFR. Southwest winds may gust 15-20kts at times in the late morning at the northern sites. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ILZ080-084-088- 092-093. MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114. IN...None. KY...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KYZ001>004. && $$ DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION...DRS