119
FXUS63 KPAH 011745
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1245 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place
  this weekend and next week, resulting in on and off chances of
  showers and storms.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near to a bit above
  average.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

|Updated the aviation section for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

An upper level shortwave trof just to our west will move slowly
northeast across the area today. Rain coverage will be best on
through the morning hours, with scattered to numerous showers
this afternoon and evening. Overall instability looks to be the
best during the afternoon and early evening for some thunder
activity. Overall, we have very little confidence there will be
any severe storm activity (see SPC`s marginal risk area for
today). Maybe some precip loading and gusty downdraft winds
with some of the stronger cells. Sunday through Sunday night
should be quiet with weak high pressure in control.

Next week a consensus of model output has our flow transitioning
from zonal to northwest as an upper low deepens while moving
east along the U.S.-Canadian border. This pattern will support
our continued chance of showers and storms along with slightly
above average temperatures, as a series of upper level impulses
move over our region interacting with a rather warm and unstable
environment. The NBM captures this relatively well, so no real
adjustments needed to its output for our forecast. Thursday
through Friday night may be mostly void of shower and storm
activity per a model consensus. We cannot rule out some diurnal
activity, so slight chance PoPs will remain during mainly the
afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024
I
Rain continues to move through the eastern half of the Quad
State, with scattered shower development in the west. These
showers will continue this afternoon and evening from west to
east. Lightning activity will be fairly limited as sky cover
remains BKN-OVC, limiting afternoon-evening convective potential.
IFR to MVFR cigs with rain will briefly lift to VFR, then drop
back down to MVFR-IFR overnight. Vsby drops accompany heavy
rain and storms. If any partial clearing can occur tonight, some
fog development is possible, but clearing potential is low,
especially in the northeast. Winds out of the south today will
trend lighter, becoming calm tonight, and remaining light
tomorrow.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...CN
AVIATION...ATL