315
FXUS63 KPAH 211848
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
148 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will slowly push through the region Sunday into
  Monday, bringing periods of showers and storms. The risk for
  severe storms is marginal Monday, with gusty winds and hail
  the main hazards of concern during peak heating. Rainfall
  totals should broadly range from one half to 2 inches, with
  locally higher amounts possible, especially along the I-64
  corridor.

- Cooler and less humid conditions arrive behind the cold front
  for the rest of the week with highs only ranging from the
  upper 70s to lower 80s. Rain chances linger into Tuesday,
  with additional low rain chances possible towards the end of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

An increasingly active and unsettled weather pattern will evolve
across the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys through the
first half of the new week. An upper level ridge will be suppressed
into the southern U.S. as ripples of shortwave energy stream through
the southwesterly flow aloft. At the same time, a cold front will
slowly approach and eventually pass through the region by Tuesday.
The forcing accompanying each wave of energy will act upon the
humid and unstable air mass across the region to yield periods
of showers and thunderstorms through Monday night and Tuesday.

In the near term, convective activity is likely to be more hit
or miss through Sunday until better forcing arrives on Monday.
Better rain chances appear to be focused across the northern
half of the forecast area on Sunday before expanding south to
encompass the entire area by Monday. Even so, isolated to widely
scattered activity cannot be ruled out practically anywhere
through the period. SPC has much of the area outlooked in a
marginal risk for severe weather on Monday, when locally strong
storms may be capable of producing strong wind gusts and/or
hail. However, much of that is contingent on how much the
atmosphere is able to destabilize amidst the presence of what
appears likely to be an abundance of cloud cover.

Rainfall totals through Monday night and Tuesday are forecast to
range from less than an inch across southern portions of western
Kentucky up to 2 inches or more across northern portions of
southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana. That
said, there will likely be a wide range in outcomes given the
scattered nature of the activity, with some locations receiving very
little rain while other locations receive potentially in excess of 3
inches with repeat heavy downpours.

Beyond Tuesday, a trend towards mainly dry weather and cooler
weather is anticipated in the wake of the cold frontal passage. That
said, model agreement isn`t the best during the middle to latter
half of the week, which lends to lower than average forecast
confidence. A number of model solutions suggest a cut-off low may
develop over the south central U.S., and this could potentially
interact with a tropical system forecast to impact the Gulf Coast
later in the week. Given the rather complicated low confidence
forecast, substantial changes are possible as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through tonight and
Sunday. The potential for isolated/scattered showers and
thunderstorms is greatest this afternoon near KCGI/KPAH, and
Sunday morning from KMVN to KEVV. However, much of the overnight
period should be dry. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out late
tonight, in particular at KCGI. Winds will be light from the
south/southwest.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RJP
AVIATION...RJP