Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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770 FXUS63 KPAH 252307 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 607 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few isolated thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon with dry conditions expected tonight. - Chances for widespread heavy rain will ramp up Thursday night through Sunday, as the remnants of Hurricane Helene interact with an upper-level storm system. - The heaviest rain is expected from late Thursday night through Friday evening. Forecast rainfall in this period currently ranges from around 2 inches along I-64 to 3-4 inches in far southern portions of the region. The rains will become lighter and more isolated through the weekend. - The Quad State will begin to dry out on Tuesday as a cold front passes. Cool, fall-like conditions are forecast for next Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 This afternoon, an upper level low is moving directly across the area with surface high pressure nudging in from the west. A few isolated showers have developed across SEMO this afternoon as expected. Most of the night is forecast to be dry. The National Hurricane Center forecasts now Hurricane Helene to move across the Panhandle of Florida late Thursday, and into the Tennessee Valley by early Friday. By Saturday, the upper low and remnant circulation of Helene will merge together and meander across the area. Confidence on the exact placement of these features is still low and some changes to the forecast seems probable. WPC QPF hasn`t changed too much from the previous forecast with storm total rainfall ranging from 3-4 inches with some localized areas possibly seeing upwards of 4+ inches. The heaviest rainfall is still expected late Thursday night through Friday. The general thinking from the previous shift of taking the current QPF with a grain of salt still stands. The terrain across the Tennessee Valley will have an impact on weakening the remnant circulation. However, there will be plenty of upper level ascent to support periods of heavy rainfall. Ensemble support for gusty winds has increased with now 50-70% chance of 35kt wind gusts across northern portions of the region Friday afternoon and evening. As a result winds in the forecast have increased with wind gusts in the 25-30 mph range across many locations. The strong pressure gradient that is expected across the area may mean that wind gusts may need to be bumped up in later forecasts. Again the best time frame for these winds will be Friday afternoon and evening. Showers will continue through the weekend as the system meanders across the area. Coverage of showers will begin to decrease late Saturday and especially on Sunday. The system finally gets kicked out early next week as a strong trough digs into the northern plains. Northwest flow aloft will result in cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 60`s to near 70 on Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Generally expecting VFR conditions through this TAF issuance. The exception will be late tonight into early Thursday morning when some ground fog may develop again at CGI/MVN. Winds will gradually increase through the day Thursday before the much gustier winds arrive Friday with the remnants of Hurricane Helene. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...KC