Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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843 FXUS63 KPAH 142312 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 612 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An isolated storm cannot be completely ruled out with fropa during peak heating today. - Hot and humid summer-like air hits by Sunday and reigns thru next week with daily heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. About the only relief will be the slim almost daily chance for an isolated thunderstorm during the heat of the afternoon or early evening. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Visible satellite imagery shows a cu field developing along and behind the cold front. This trend should continue as the front sags southward thru the FA during peak heating. The CAMs are mostly silent, but do suggest some popcorn convection is possible, esp the FV3, which hints at some orographic assistance from the Ozarks with a little better development over portions of SEMO than any of the others show. Altogether, we`re satisfied with our isolated 10-20% pops we inherit. After fropa, or fro-disintegration, the upper ridge takes over for the weekend and into next week. Drier dew points Saturday will make high temps around 90 not feel so so bad, but by Sunday, those dew points start to nudge upward and ultimately they settle into the upper half 60s to around 70, where they stay for the entirety of the new week. That combined with daily highs into/thru the 90s will mean upper end 90s and some 100s for Heat Indices. It`s not headline material, but is worth notice as our first real stretch of significant heat/humidity this summer. The only relief will be the almost daily chance to encounter an isolated shower/storm during the afternoon or early evening. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 608 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 A few isolated showers around KPAH will dissipate over the next 1 to 2 hours. SCT cu around 5kft will also give way to clear skies tonight. Aside from some SCT high cloud tomorrow and perhaps a few cu mainly in southeast Missouri it looks primarily clear. Light and variable winds tonight will become easterly around 5-7 kts tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...SP