Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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638 FXUS63 KPAH 201720 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Conditions will remain unseasonably warm and humid through Monday with highs ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. - A weak disturbance may trigger a few isolated light rain showers this morning and tonight across portions of the region, but more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity holds off until Sunday into Monday as a cold front approaches. - Much cooler conditions return for the middle of next week behind a cold front along with lingering rain chances. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Updated Aviation discussion for the 18z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 203 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 More humid conditions are in store to end the week as sfc high pressure located over the deep south moves east allowing for southwesterly return flow. Dewpoints are progged to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s, making it feel a lot more like summer. Unseasonably warm conditions remain in place through the weekend as 850 mb temps rise above the 95th percentile to near 20C. This translates to maxTs around 90 and minTs in the upper 60s to near 70. Otherwise, modest isentropic lift and WAA at 850 mb will support a chance of a few isolated light rain showers this morning in southern Illinois and southeast Missouri, with a returning slight chance tonight mainly north along I-64. Although the rain chances are non-zero, most of the FA likely remains dry through Saturday with rising heights aloft. Amplification in the synoptic flow will lead to more unsettled weather on Sunday as a 500 mb shortwave ejects across the central Plains. Forcing for ascent due to multiple leading impulses will support more widespread shower and storm chances into Monday. Model guidance shows a cold front eventually moving through Monday night into Tuesday as a deep longwave 500 mb trough digs across the central CONUS. The general consensus is for 0.50 to 1.00 inches of total QPF with locally higher amounts possible due to convection. Behind the cold front on Tuesday, slightly below normal temps are in store through the middle of the week due to troughing aloft. MaxTs are progged by the NBM to only be around 80 with minTs falling into the 50s. Forecast uncertainty still remains quite high for the end of the week as model ensembles show a large spread in the evolution of a potential tropical disturbance down in the Gulf of Mexico. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 For the 18z TAFs, steady SW surface flow will continue ahead of the approach of a weak cold front. Winds will be 5-10 kts this afternoon, relaxing to 5 kts or less overnight. This front may kick off some isolated convection this evening, but coverage at this time looks to be too low to mention in any TAF at this time. FEW-BKN diurnal CU with bases around 7kft will wane this evening, with SCT mid- and high-level cloud cover persisting through the remainder of the period. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...DWS