Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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138 FXUS63 KPAH 180417 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 1117 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions with a warming trend in temperatures are forecast through the rest of the work week and the first half of the weekend. - Dry relative humidity levels will lead to slightly elevated fire weather concerns through Thursday. - A weak cold front will bring a slight chance of showers Sunday into Monday, along with slightly cooler temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Dry and warm conditions will continue today and Wednesday as the region remains under steady and dry NE flow. This is due to an elongated area of high pressure stretching across the Southern Plains into the Midwest and the tropical disturbance off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The dry air will lead to minimum RH values of 30-40% over the region this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. For areas that have missed out on the recent rain, a slightly elevated risk of uncontrolled fire spread will exist. However, fire weather concerns will be tempered by light surface winds. High temperatures will be warm by September standards, in the middle to upper 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. For the latter half of the work week into Saturday, H5 heights will rise as surface ridging expands eastward. This will lead to a warming trend in temperatures. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows falling into the lower to middle 60s. With surface flow becoming southerly, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will begin to creep into the area, resulting in dew point temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 60s as well. A change to a slightly cooler and perhaps more unsettled period is forecast beginning Sunday into early next week. Model guidance is in rather uncertain in the progression of a surface cold front into the region during this time. It may get close enough to kick off some isolated showers Sunday into Monday, but it does not look to be a washout by any stretch. With additional cloud cover, temperatures will fall a bit by Monday, with highs in the lower 80s forecast. Long range ensemble guidance is split between a more zonal and active pattern and a return of ridging and warm/dry conditions for next week`s synoptic pattern, so overall confidence in this part of the forecast is lower than normal. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Clear skies and light surface winds will allow for fog development at mainly CGI, PAH, and MVN. Higher confidence at CGI where IFR/LIFR conditions are forecast. VFR forecast for Wednesday at all sites. Winds should remain light at or around 5 knots. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...AD