548
FXUS61 KPBZ 150931
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
531 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue through Monday under high pressure.
Rain chances return Tuesday, and continue periodically through
late week, with slow moving low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and warm weather continues today
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Adjusted hourly temperatures this morning based on the latest
surface observations. A mainly light downsloping wind has kept
temperatures higher than forecast over a portion of the area.
Otherwise, high pressure across the northeast CONUS will
maintain dry weather again today. Dry easterly flow and mixing
will result in low RH levels this afternoon, especially south of
Rt 422. This will be highlighted in the Fire Weather Forecast.

High temperatures should be a degree or two lower than
Saturday`s readings, with slightly lower 850mb temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry and warm again Monday
- Low pressure returns rain chances Tuesday
-------------------------------------------------------------------

High pressure will remain centered across the northeastern CONUS
through Monday night. The high will begin to shift eastward
Monday night and Tuesday, as a developing low tracks through the
Carolinas. This low could become tropical before moving onshore.

Models have trended further west with the track of the low, with
recent output indicating it approaching the Lower Ohio Valley
region Tuesday. The low is progged to become vertically stacked
by Tuesday/Tuesday night. Operational models still differ with
the exact track and timing of this system, so stayed close to
the ensemble solutions to smooth out some of these differences.

Rain chances will begin to increase from S-N late Monday night
and Tuesday as moisture and ascent increase on the northern
periphery of the approaching low. Maintained mainly chance POPs
for now with the uncertainty in the details. After another warm
day Monday, temperatures should cool back towards seasonable
levels by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances continue through late week
- Cooler, but still above average temperatures
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Model ensembles indicate an upper low will persist across the
Ohio Valley and Eastern CONUS through late week. This will
maintain periodic shower chances through Friday. The latest NBM
probabilities for at least a half of an inch of rain are
highest across areas SE of PIT, though plenty of uncertainty
still exists in the track and timing details of the low.

Models indicate a ridge will build in again across the region by
next weekend, returning dry weather to the area. Overall,
temperatures are expected to be near seasonable levels through
most of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure, centered across the NE CONUS, will maintain VFR
through the TAF period. East wind will persist at 5-10kt.

.Outlook...
VFR is expected under high pressure through Monday. Occasional
restrictions and showers are possible Tuesday through Thursday
as low pressure slowly tracks from the Carolina coast to the
Ohio Valley region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...WM