109
FXUS61 KPBZ 161218
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
818 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue today under high pressure. Rain
chances return Tuesday and continue periodically through late
week with a slow moving low pressure system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues today under high pressure
-------------------------------------------------------------------

For the early morning update, made adjustments to the hourly
temperatures based on the latest observations. Otherwise, high
pressure, centered across the northeastern CONUS, will maintain
dry weather today as it begins to shift eastward. A developing
low, which could become tropical, is expected to strengthen off
the South Carolina coast today. Upper level moisture streaming
north ahead of the low will result in an increase in cirrus
clouds through the day.

High temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler today
than Sunday`s readings, with lower 850mb temperatures and
falling 500mb heights.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances return late tonight south of Pittsburgh
- Periodic rain chances continue through mid week
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The low pressure system off of the South Carolina coast is
progged to move onshore tonight. Moisture and ascent on the
northern periphery of the low will return rain chances late
tonight for areas near and south of I-68.

The surface low is expected to weaken, while the upper low
slowly drifts across the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valley region.
Areas of moisture and lift rotating around the low will result
in periodic chance POPs in the forecast through mid week.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be light for much of the area.
Eastern Tucker county will see upslope easterly flow through the
period, which could enhance any rainfall that occurs there. Kept
the POPs in the chance range for much of the area, with likely
for the higher terrain areas in WV.

Temperatures are expected to average near seasonable levels
through mid week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Rain chances end by late week
- Above average temperatures return
- Dry weather next weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------

The low is expected to continue to spin across the VA/NC region
on Thursday. Continued pockets of moisture and lift rotating
around the low will maintain chance POPs for showers on
Thursday.

Model ensembles indicate the low will drift eastward toward the
Mid Atlantic region by Friday, with rain chances ending. A ridge
is then expected to build across the Mississippi Valley region
to the NE CONUS, as the low drifts southward to the SE coast.
Dry weather is expected as the ridge builds in through next
weekend.

Temperatures are expected to average above seasonable levels
through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR is expected to continue through the period as the area sits
on the western edge of a high pressure ridge. A slightly
elevated pressure gradient will provide another opportunity for
daytime easterly gusts at susceptible ports. There is still a
70% or greater chance of gusts less than 20kts in the
afternoon. Gusts will subside overnight with the loss of mixing.

High clouds will continue to increase in coverage from the
southeast as upper moisture from a tropical disturbance advects
in, but there is high confidence this does not impose any
restrictions for the current TAF period.

.Outlook...
Occasional restrictions and showers are possible Tuesday
through Thursday as low pressure slowly tracks from the Carolina
coast to the Ohio Valley region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Cermak/Milcarek