666
FXUS61 KPHI 290438
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches the region from the northwest tonight,
then moves through later Wednesday into Wednesday night before
moving offshore. Surface high pressure builds in thereafter,
holding influence over the region Thursday into Sunday.
Unsettled conditions could return late in the weekend into the
beginning of next week thanks to the next low pressure system
and associated fronts.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Showers have ended. Quiet night on tap. Made adjustments to
hourly grids based on latest surface obs. Lows tonight will be
in the 50s to around 60.

Otherwise, dry to start Wednesday morning before the axis of a
broad upper level trough shifts overhead in the afternoon,
bringing showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast.
Clearer skies earlier in the day will allow to strong daytime
heating, but thanks to the fronts passing through the region on
Tuesday, low-level moisture will be on the lower side (surface
dewpoints in the mid 50s at best). In combination with high
temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, only modest surface based
CAPE will result (500-750 J/kg). Model soundings indicate that
shear will also be on the lower side (30-35 kts) and
unidirectional. Putting all the pieces together, a few stronger
thunderstorms will be possible but severe potential remains
overall low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Cold front will continue to cross through the region during the
first half of Wednesday night before moving offshore. Thereafter,
surface high pressure will look to build in from the northwest with
time. Though some shortwave energy may keep things slightly
unsettled Thursday, surface high pressure will dominate the region
through the rest of the short term.

Not too much to write home about with this forecast. WPC does not
have our region outlooked for any excessive rainfall; SPC does not
have our region outlooked for any severe weather. Chance of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday night thanks to the
cold front and upper-level short wave continuing to pass through;
PoPs diminishing with time. Slight chance of a few
stray/isolated showers Thursday thanks to some lingering
shortwave energy. Otherwise, with surface high pressure building
in, expect high pressure to dominate Thursday, Thursday night,
and Friday. Mostly clear skies can be anticipated Thursday
onwards.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensembles and deterministic models support surface high pressure
holding influence over the region Friday night into Sunday as it
moves generally eastward with time. With surface high pressure
possibly well offshore by later Sunday into Monday, next surface low
pressure system and associated fronts should be invited to impact
the region. Things look to become unsettled during the time frame of
later Sunday into the beginning of next week.

Overall, expect mainly quiet conditions Friday night through
Saturday night with things beginning to become unsettled again later
Sunday into the beginning of the week. No PoP included in today`s
forecast through Saturday night. PoPs approach from the west Sunday;
slight chance or chance PoPs Sunday afternoon onwards. Around
average temperatures expected through the term.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...VFR. W-NW winds 5 kt or less. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR conditions through the morning with mostly
clear skies. Sub-VFR conditions possible in the afternoon with
scattered showers and thunderstorms. As of now, confidence isn`t
high, so left sub-VFR CIGs out of TAFs. W-NW winds around 5-10
kt, locally higher in heavier showers/thunderstorms. Moderate
confidence.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Sub-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance for isolated/stray showers,
mainly in the afternoon.

Thursday night through Saturday night...VFR.

Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through Wednesday. SW winds 10-15 kt gusting
to 20 kt into this evening diminish to a light west flow around
5-10 kt overnight. Winds turn SSW around 10 kt again during the
day Wednesday with gust up to 15 kt. Seas 2-4 feet Tuesday
night become 2-3 feet Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...No marine headlines anticipated.
Showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday night.

Rip Currents...

For Wednesday, A west to northwest wind 5-10 mph to start the
morning is light enough for a sea breeze to develop by early
afternoon. As a result, winds will shift from southerly around 10
mph before becoming light and variable at night. Given breaking
waves of only near 2 feet with a medium period swell, there is a LOW
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the New
Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For Thursday, a north-northwest wind around 10 mph is forecast to
become northeast and even easterly during the course of the day.
Despite this more onshore wind component developing, breaking waves
of only about 2 feet with a medium period swell and therefore will
continue a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at
the New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...DeSilva/MJL/MPS
SHORT TERM...Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Wunderlin
AVIATION...DeSilva/MJL/MPS/Wunderlin
MARINE...DeSilva/Gorse/MJL/Wunderlin