Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
721 FXUS65 KPIH 220912 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 312 AM MDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today and Sunday The big weather story through the weekend will be the heat! The area will reside on the northern edge of a building ridge of high pressure across the western U.S. Thanks to the strong ridge, precipitation will be non-existent and we`ll be hard pressed to find much in the way of clouds either. The heat is the only show in town and it will be quite warm. Expecting daytime highs to top out in the 90s today in the Magic Valley and lower Snake Plain with 80s across the higher terrain. Sunday the heat goes up a few more degrees with mid 90s more the norm across the lower elevations. These high temps will be some 15 degrees above normal for late June so it`ll certainly be quite toasty outside. We`re close to heat advisory criteria but it still appears just a bit too marginal especially with decent overnight recovery in many locations. In addition to the heat, winds will become breezy on Sunday as the gradient tightens between the ridge to out south. We`ll likely be close to advisory level winds across the Arco Desert but elsewhere winds in the 15-20 kt range appear more probable. McKaughan .LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday Early next week will continue to be support seasonably warm temperatures and occasional breezy to windy conditions as a broad H5 trough remains firmly in place overhead over the WRN/CNTRL CONUS. Elevated winds will be courtesy of a 25-35 kt 700 mb winds and an enhanced PGF courtesy of a H5 low situated in the NE Pacific and a H5 ridge axis over the CNTRL CONUS. Winds will peak around 15-30 mph each afternoon with gusts around 25-45 mph, strongest of which will be located across the Snake River Plain with an emphasis on the Arco/Mud Lake Desert where locally stronger winds will be possible. Highs Monday through Wednesday will range from the 80s to mid 90s with overnight lows in the 40s/50s/60s. These temperatures are about 10-15 degrees above normal for late June with no record warmth anticipated. Changed are on the way later in the week as model guidance remains in reasonable agreement on that aforementioned H5 trough moves onshore on Thursday. This trough will support a cold frontal passage Thursday into Friday which will bring in a cooler airmass for Friday with seasonably cool highs back in the upper 60s to upper 70s or about 10-15 degrees cooler over Wednesday. While isolated showers and thunderstorms will be back in the forecast for Wednesday through Friday, conditions will remain predominantly dry as winds remain elevated heading into the weekend, still peaking around 15-30 mph each day. As this H5 trough exits east over the Continental Divide on Friday, isolated showers/storms will give way to warmer and dry weather for the weekend ahead as temperatures begin to see a warming trend. This will be courtesy of another H5 ridge building in quickly behind with SW/zonal flow on Friday transitioning to broad SW flow starting on Saturday and continuing into early the following week. This will keep conditions dry as temperatures return to seasonably warm levels. MacKay && .AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday. Predominant VFR and dry conditions will continue through the weekend under the increasing influence of high pressure ridge overhead. This will lead to clear skies through Sunday outside of passing mid/upper level clouds on Saturday. Winds on Saturday will remain in similar fashion to previous days, ranging from light and variable to 8-15 kts with gusts to around 15-25 kts. Winds on Sunday however will see an increase to 12-22 kts with gusts to around 25-35 kts. MacKay && .FIRE WEATHER... Expecting dry and hot conditions to linger through Wednesday with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Minimum humidity will be 10 to 20 percent through Wednesday as well. Next chance for convection will be next Thursday mainly again in the extreme east. Wind will increase substantially Sunday and will have some breezy to windy conditions Sunday through next Thursday. Wind speeds will be 15 to 30 mph most likely through that period in the afternoons. McKaughan && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$