845
FXUS65 KPIH 212000
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
200 PM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sat night. Enough moisture, heating,
and unstable air along the border with WY south of Palisades
Reservoir to trigger some isolated thunderstorms and light rain
showers during the early evening. Skies will clear until very
early morning Sat when a mid-level layer of clouds moves through
the areas south of Blackfoot`s latitude, thinning out during the
early afternoon. The timing should allow central and eastern Idaho
to escape Sat afternoon with no showers or thunderstorms.

The strong sunshine will allow deep mixing and so gusty afternoon
and evening wind should develop, mainly over the Arco Desert
region, and nothing more than breezy conditions (10 to 20 mph
gusts to 30 mph).

But the main forecast issue is the heat. Strongest sunshine of the
year will couple with the heated air mass coming in from the south
and temperatures should soar into the lower and middle 90s for
elevations in the Southern Hills less than 6000ft and the eastern
Magic Valley. Farther north in the Snake River plain, afternon
highs will still be in the 80s and lower 90s. The overnight lows
on Sat night in the southern hills stay very warm, especially at
the inversion top, where they will stay in the 60s, and even the
low 70s. This is a small area, and after some discussion was not
seen as extensive enough for any Heat Advisory or Excessive Heat
Warning. The area of marginal threat of reaching Heat Advisory
decreased as well for Sat, compared to previous forecasts. As of
right now, the low temperatures, high temperatures, and the
climatic temperatures have not produced the need for any
headlines, although it is very close. Messick


.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday.
Main impacts in the long term will be hot conditions and occasional
breezy to windy conditions as well.  Sunday will be the hottest day
in the long term with highs in low elevations in the mid to upper
90s and mainly 80s in the mountains.  Wind speeds of sustained 15 to
30 mph are expected in the upper snake river plain as well.  Will
see a slight cool down Monday of about 5 degrees with low elevations
highs down to the upper 80s to lower 90s and mountains in the 70s
and 80s.  Breezy to windy conditions again in the Snake Plain with
again winds 15 to 30 mph sustained.  Temperatures will warm again
through mid week with highs in low elevations well into the 90s
again by Wednesday then the model blend is expecting a significant
cool down Thursday into Friday but low confidence that far out as
the blend by Friday has highs down into the 60s mountains and 70s
low elevations.  The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns
mainly in the eastern highlands both Thursday and Friday.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Main impact will be isolated thunderstorms early this evening in
zones 411 and 413.  Otherwise it will be dry Saturday through next
Wednesday.   Expect breezy to windy conditions Sunday through next
week with general sustained winds in many areas in the 15 to 30 mph
range and gusts into the 30s.  It will also be very dry with minimum
humidity in the 10 to 20 percent range through Wednesday.   Highs
will generally be in the 80s mountains and 90s valleys through
Wednesday.   Expect a bit of a cool down next Thursday and Friday
with the potential for below normal temperatures by the end of next
week, but low confidence at this point that far out.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR conditions will continue with some mid and high level
clouds this evening with mainly clear skies overnight into Saturday.
 Expect brunt of thunderstorms activity this evening to be south and
east of all TAF sites with DIJ the only site where could see showers
or even a thunderstorms vicinity.  At present only have VCSH.  Not
expecting significant winds through Saturday.  May increase to
around 10 knots Saturday afternoon at all sites.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$