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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
124 FXUS65 KPIH 100823 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 223 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night. Main impact of short term will be some lingering showers and thunderstorms in the eastern highlands this morning and early afternoon. Storms will be only isolated and mot nearly as strong as on Sunday. The showers and isolated storms will push east as system exits this evening. Will be dry tonight through Tuesday night as dry zonal flow sets in tonight through Tuesday night. Will have some 10 to 20 mph sustained winds in the Snake Plain both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will be cooler today but still above normal. Highs generally in the 70s mountains to around 80 in the Magic Valley and Snake River Plain. Lows tonight in the 40s mountains and 50s valleys and will have some warming Tuesday with highs well into the 80s in lower elevations with near 90 in the Eastern Magic Valley. Will have mild lows again Tuesday night with 40s mountains to mid to upper 50s valleys. GK .LONG TERM...Wed through Sun night. With 5800+ meter 500mb heights over the forecast area, there is little chance for significant precipitation. Through Fri afternoon, the clusters indicate dry conditions as a given. On Sat, just over half of the solutions show a breakdown of this upper level ridge, which could trigger some dry thunderstorms anywhere over the forecast area. But there is a solid 40-plus percent chance of the heat and dryness continuing. For Sun, the threat goes up to 67 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms as this upper level trough continues its eastward trek and with some solutions has the upper level trough axis overhead of the forecast area. Winds appear to be elevated starting Fri afternoon with the approach of this upper level trough. This continues into the weekend with the trough continuing close. This positive tilt trough just does not appear to be much of a threat. The warmest day should be Thu with temperatures returning to near 90 degrees for the lower Snake River plain, eastern Magic Valley and the valleys in the southern hills. Only cloud cover levels off temperatures on Fri, then the trough finally brings in cold air to drive temperatures to the upper 70s in the Snake River plain on Sat and lower 70s for the Snake River plain on Sun. Only the final day in this period is below normal. Messick && .AVIATION...SHRA and clouds will wrap up from west to east as the skies clear behind yesterday`s cold front. By 10/12Z KSUN should clear, by 10/15Z it`s KBYI`s turn, and by 10/18Z KIDA and KPIH follow. Clouds and TSRA should linger in the KDIJ vicinity until early evening, around 11/03Z. Wind will increase in the afternoon and peak during the early evening for the three valley airdromes, light elsewhere. Messick && .FIRE WEATHER...The passage of last night`s cold front will cool off temperatures. Humidity will be much lower in the afternoon as skies clear and the precipitation ends. As upper level high pressure returns, look for warming to resume Tue. By Wed, afternoon humidity below 15 percent should return to lower elevations in the Salmon- Challis and the Arco Desert. Gusty afternoon wind will continue. Messick && .HYDROLOGY... A FLOOD WARNING remains in effect for the Teton River near Driggs as small streams/creeks and the main stem river continue to run high. Minor flooding is being observed on the main stem river and is expected to remain at that level through midweek, aided by additional snowmelt from the Tetons and Big Holes. Further downstream along the Teton River near St. Anthony, that gage has reached action stage and is expected to remain elevated through midweek as well. Several other rivers across the CNTRL Mountains are also seeing diurnal increases with the Big Lost River at Howell Ranch currently hovering around action stage. Along the Snake River, increased flows out of Palisades Reservoir has also led to the Snake River near Heise gage climbing up to action stage and it is expected to stay there for at least the next week. MacKay && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$