Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
903 FXUS65 KPIH 160804 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 204 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night. Satellite imagery shows wide band of mid and high cloud across East Idaho today, low enough to produce some very weak radar returns. It is possible to see a sprinkle or two at some higher elevations, but overall dry conditions are anticipated today. Breezy winds develop into the afternoon once again throughout the Snake Plain, but nowhere near the strength we saw on Saturday. Northern portions of the Arco Desert region and across the INL could briefly touch into Wind Advisory range over 30 mph sustained, but do not feel this is a wide enough threat for headline issuance today. Next shortwave feature rotating toward the PaCNW coast early today, and is anticipated to arrive in East Idaho tonight. Showers spread into the central mountains around/just after midnight tonight, then showers and thunderstorms spread across mainly the northern half of East Idaho through the day Monday. This system brings a more vigorous cold front, so winds once again expected to be a threat during the day Monday. If current forecast trends hold, expect a Wind Advisory for most of the Snake Plain. The biggest impact from this frontal system will likely be the temperatures, as they plummet Monday night. Confidence is growing at the potential for freezing or close to freezing temperatures Monday night. The entirety of the Snake Plain looks to be in line for at least a Frost Advisory for widespread temperatures at or below 36 degrees. Stay tuned... DMH .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday. The long term period will be marked by a period of transition from spring-like conditions back towards summer. The remnants of the deep, cold low pressure system will gradually fill through the week with high pressure re-asserting itself by the end of the week. Frost/Freeze issues Tuesday morning should be the last of the near future as temperatures moderate 8 to 10 degrees across the board daily from Tuesday through Thursday. By Thursday, temperatures will be well-above seasonal values with highs in the Snake Plain getting back into the mid 80s... by Sat/Sun these could be pushing into the low 90s. Any lingering moisture could be enough to generate a few additional light showers Tuesday afternoon, primarily for the Upper Snake Plain and Eastern Highlands, but significant precipitation is not expected. This will pretty much be it in terms of precipitation chances through the balance of the week as high pressure takes control. Not a lot else going on in the extended timeframe with the heat and dry in place, but we`ll be monitoring the potential for wind to increase next weekend for any additional fire weather concerns. TAX && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through TAF period under mostly dry conditions. Mid to upper level cloud deck in place will linger through the morning hours before pushing east and eroding around midday. Winds will once again increase today as cooler air moves into the PacNW, but not expecting strong gusts that we saw Saturday. The strongest wind gusts will reside over the upper Snake Plain again, but we`re looking at gusts topping out around 25-30kt. We should see cigs return later tonight into Monday morning with some increased precipitation potential. Highest precipitation chances will be over KIDA/KDIJ, but this will be later Monday afternoon. TAX && .FIRE WEATHER... && .HYDROLOGY...Flood warnings remain in place for the Teton River and the Snake River. The Teton River currently hovers very close to the flood stage, and forecasts remain steady in bringing it down through the day today. The Snake River at Heise remains near, but just below, flood stage. DMH && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$