893
FXUS65 KPIH 230942
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
342 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday
If you thought Saturday was hot, well Sunday looks to be even hotter
by a few degrees regionwide. Strong high pressure is in full control
of the weather over the region. Mid 90s appear likely throughout
much of the Snake Plain and into the Magic Valley this afternoon
with some upper 90s not out of the question. Mountain locations will
be in the mid to upper 80s. As we`d expect with high pressure and
hot temps, not expecting much in the way of clouds and certainly no
precipitation. The only concern will be for gusty winds later this
afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens over the area the next
few days with a trough to our northwest. Will likely come close to
wind advisory criteria across the Arco Desert for a few hours but
will hold off on any headlines given the short duration and marginal
winds. Valley locations will likely see winds in the 15-25 mph range
for a good portion of the day. Monday looks painfully similar
weather wise though H5 heights will be a touch lower as the ridge is
ever so slightly suppressed which will drop temps by a few
degrees Monday but still well above average. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday
Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue into Tuesday
courtesy of a well established H5 ridge overhead. Highs will be in
the 80s to mid 90s or about 10-15 degrees above normal. Changes
are on the way midweek however as a H5 low situated in the NE
Pacific begins to shift east towards the PacNW for Wednesday into
early Thursday. Moisture working overtop this ridge feature will
help to work to support isolated shower/thunderstorm chances or
around a 10- 30% chance for Wednesday of which will continue into
Thursday as a cold front works across SRN Idaho and that H5 low
moves onshore. PWATs ahead of the cold front on Thursday will
climb to 0.75-1.00" on Wednesday which is about 150-200% of normal
for this time of year. As a result, any stronger storms that
develop on Wednesday will be capable of producing heavy rain with
overall precipitation amounts outside of convection remaining very
light to none. For Thursday, we will encounter a drier
environment with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms as best
chances shift SE of the Snake Plain.

While breezy winds are expected each afternoon for Tuesday and
Wednesday (primarily around the Snake Plain) with winds around
15-30 mph and gusts up to 30-45 mph, those will increase
regionwide for Thursday as 35-45 kt 700 mb winds shift overhead. A
cold front on Thursday will support an increase in winds to
around 20-40 mph with gusts up to 40-60 mph of which will continue
to need to be monitored for a potential WIND ADVISORY issuance,
particularly across the Arco/Mud Lake Desert and Upper Snake Plain
region.

Behind this cold front for Friday, temperatures will be noticeably
cooler in 60s to mid 70s outside of some low 80s along the Utah
border which is actually slightly below normal for late June. With
a drier airmass in place behind that cold frontal boundary, dry
conditions will then return through the weekend with those cooler
temperatures Friday being short-lived as predominant SW shifts
flow back overhead. As a result, we will be back in the 80s/90s
for highs regionwide this weekend as breezy afternoon winds
persist. MacKay


&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday
Predominant VFR and dry conditions will continue into early next
week under a ridge of high pressure. A passing trough to our north
today will help to introduce 30-40 kt 700 mb winds overhead which
will mix down to the surface this afternoon. This will support
light surface this morning increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts to
25-35 kts by this afternoon before subsiding overnight tonight.
Winds will then ramp up again for Monday afternoon to similar
levels as elevated upper-level flow persists. Skies will remain
clear through the TAF period outside of some afternoon CU and any
potential wildfire smoke from a new fire start yesterday in the
Owyhees. The HRRR smoke model keeps the bulk of this smoke aloft
over KSUN today given prevailing SW flow. MacKay

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and seasonably hot temperatures will persist through
the first half of this week with daytime highs running 10 to 15
degrees above normal. Minimum humidity will range 10 to 20 percent
through mid-week. Furthermore, elevated upper-level flow will
support breezy surface conditions over lower valleys each afternoon
throughout the week, with sustained winds nearing 20 mph and gusts
ranging 30 to 40 mph. A system will bring a brief reprieve Thursday
through Friday along with slight chances for isolated showers and
thunderstorms, dropping temperatures back to within a few degrees of
normal and helping to increase min RH a bit but next weekend looks
quite warm and dry. McKaughan

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$