705
FXUS65 KPUB 022350
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
550 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered weak thunderstorms over the mountains with
  gusty outflows of around 30 to 40 mph

- Mostly dry conditions with above seasonal temperatures expected
  through the middle of the work week.

- Rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase for the end of the
  week and into next weekend.

- Increasing flows in area streams and rivers with expected enhanced
  runoff of high mountain snowpack.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Lingering thunderstorms are expected right at the beginning of the
short term forecast period (Sunday at 6PM), with the main risk being
gusty outflow winds of around 50 to 60 MPH possible. By around 8pm
all storms will be east of the Colorado border and dry conditions
continue across the entire region.

Tomorrow the winds will be much weaker and the coverage of
thunderstorms will also decrease. There will be some weak showers
and thunderstorms that develop over the mountains, but the primary
risk from those storms will be gusty outflows of around 30 to 40
mph. The main story is that temperatures will continue to be hot
across the region with high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to
mid 90s across the plains, the 80s over the mountain valleys, and
the 60s to 70s over upper Rio Grande River Valley, Lake County, and
Teller County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

No big changes to the extended forecast as modest west to northwest flow
aloft across the region Monday moderates into the middle of next week,
as upper level ridging continues to build across the Central Rockies.
This allow for warmer and drier conditions to prevail across south
central and southeast Colorado. Highs through mid week look to warm to
above seasonal levels in the mid 80s to upper 90s across the plains,
with temps mainly in 60s and 70s across higher terrain. Overnight lows
also look to be at or above seasonal levels, leading to some increased
flows in area streams with expected increased melting of the high mountain
snowpack, especially across the upper Arkansas River basin where snowpack
remains above normal.

By later Thursday and continuing into the next weekend, models continue
to suggest passing waves across the Central Conus and developing southerly
flow across the Dessert Southwest and into the Rockies will lead to slowly
increasing available moisture which will lead to increasing chances of
daily showers and thunderstorms areawide into next weekend. With the increased
moisture and expected increase in convection, temperatures will slowly
decrease, though should remain at to slightly above seasonal levels into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be
primarily influenced synoptically at all terminals, with gusty SW`ly
winds at all terminals for the first several hours of the forecast
period. There will be FROPA occurring with a windshift to the N-
NE`ly direction at KCOS around 03Z and KPUB around 04Z. Winds will
also come around out of the NW at KALS and then weaken by later this
evening to L&V at both KALS and KPUB, with more of a diurnal
influence at all terminals as they become lighter. Winds will begin
to increase and become gusty again by afternoon tomorrow out of the
SW`ly direction at KALS, SE-S`ly direction at KCOS and KPUB.
-Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD