981
FXUS65 KPUB 252059
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
259 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain thunderstorms are expected to develop around 12PM, then
  spread over the mountain valleys and I-25 corridor in the
  early afternoon. Main risk will be gusty thunderstorm winds up
  to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch.

- Influx in moisture late week will bring an uptick in thunderstorm
  chances with stronger storm strengths and heavy rainfall possible.

- Temperatures cool into the weekend with warmer and drier
  conditions early next week.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

An upper level high pressure system is located over the desert
southwest which is keeping temperatures hot for today, but will
transition to creating showers and thunderstorms over the mountains
and lower elevations tomorrow. While this isn`t the monsoon, the
high pressure system is in the correct place to allow moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico and Baja California to move north towards
Colorado. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the Continental
Divide and the Sangres shortly after 12pm tomorrow. The storms will
propagate northeasterly throughout the afternoon presenting >60%
chance for thunderstorms over the mountains and 30 to 50% chances
over the mountain valleys. Towards the very end of the short term
forecast period ~30% chance of thunderstorms develop over the
southern plains south of Highway 50 and over northern El Paso
County.

We are outlooked for a Marginal Risk for severe weather by the SPC
that encompasses Teller, El Paso, Crowley, Kiowa,and parts of Pueblo
Counties. The best atmosphere will be along an axis of southeasterly
winds - to the east of that boundary there is enhanced low level
moisture which will boost MUCAPE values to around 1000-2000 J/kg. 0-
6km Bulk Shear values are right around 30kts. The only issue with
the set-up is that the shortwave, as of right now, is slightly too
slow to be in the short term forecast period.

Our high temperatures cool off tomorrow by a little bit, reaching
the upper 90s to low 100s over the plains and the 80s to upper 80s
over the mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 251 PM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Wednesday night-Friday night...Modest westerly flow aloft remains in
place across the region into the weekend, with models consistent on
increasing available moisture across the region as PWATS increase to
between 150 and 200 percent of normal. The increased moisture,
strong summer solar heating, and minor embedded waves within the
flow will lead to increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms
area wide Thursday and Friday, with the best coverage expected over
the higher terrain. Some stronger storms will be possible,
especially across the Pikes Peak region into northern portions of
the plains, where stronger flow aloft will be in place, however,
the main threats from storms will be locally heavy rainfall.
With the expected increase in moisture and convection, temperatures
are expected to cool to down to around seasonal levels on Thursday,
and slightly above on Friday.

Saturday-Sunday...A passing wave across the Northern Rockies
on Friday sends a cool front across eastern Colorado Friday night
leading to another increase in available moisture, especially across
southeast Colorado. This will lead to another increase in expected
convection on Saturday, over and near the eastern mtns, along with
temperatures cooling to below seasonal levels. Slightly warmer
temperatures in the offing for Sunday, with drier air within the
westerly flow leading to less coverage of showers and storms.

Monday-Tuesday...Models again indicating a warmer and drier period
developing as stronger westerly flow digs across the northern
Rockies, with ensemble data indicating pwats decreasing to below
seasonal averages. Less moisture in place will allow for
temperatures to rise to above seasonal levels once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB over the
forecast period. There will be some weak storms developing aloft
primarily over the mountains - if one of those storms develops
near a forecast point then gusty and erratic winds will occur.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086-093-
097-098.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SKELLY