Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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749 FXUS65 KPUB 181747 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1147 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Non zero threat of a couple of landspouts over the Baca County region late this afternoon/early evening. - Red Flag conditions over the San Luis Valley today; near critical conditions along the immediate CO/NM border this afternoon. - Strong cold front will push south down the plains this AM and stall along the CO/NM border. - Showers and storms over the far eastern plains tonight. - Around 15F colder than average for this time of year over the plains on Wednesday. - Anomalously high precipitable water (PWAT) values are expected over the mountains Thursday and Friday - will lead to heavy rains and the potential for flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Currently... An interesting next 24 hours is in store for the fcst area. On the regional scale, a rather impressive cold front is pushing southeast across Colorado early this morning. At 2 AM, this front extended from roughly KAKO-KDIA and then west-southwest across the mtns from Eagle CO to Grand Junction. Rather impressive pressure rises were noted behind this front (>10mb/3hr). over the plains, a sharp dryline was noted from the KAKO area south to KLHX to Kim and southward along the NM/TX border. East of the dryline 60+ dwpts were noted while behind the dryline, TDs were in the 20s. A strong low level jet was howling over far eastern CO as winds were gusting to 55 to 65 mph in Lamar. Today... The front over NE CO will continue to push south and should blast across the Palmer Divide around 10 UTC and continue to push south, reaching the US50 corridor during the 12-13 UTC time frame then down to the NM border by late morning. At this time the front is fcst to stall along the CO side of the Raton Mesa. As the front goes by, northerly winds will usher moister and cooler air into the area, and winds will shift to an upslope component a few hours after frontal passage. As for sensible weather, it will be a rather nice day over the region, Temps will be noticeably cooler over most of the region wit max temps in the 80s over El Paso county and low 90 over the lower Ark River Valley. Mid 90s is expected over the Raton Mesa. The interesting weather today will be along the stalled front late this afternoon into the early evening hours. This front is expected to stall and convection will likely erupt along the boundary late this afternoon. At this time, exactly WHERE the convection initiates still is a bit uncertain, but given the stalled boundary, well mixed EML and moisture advecting in behind the front, conditions will be favorable for landspout tornadoes to develop. With upslope pushing into the mtns late this afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the higher elevations of the Pikes Peak region. Tonight... For early this evening, isolated showers and storms will be possible along the east slopes of the mtns/plains interface. Over the far eastern plains early this evening, showers and storms will be ongoing, especially along the KS/CO border eastward. Some of the storms could be strong and produce locally heavy rain. As the evening progresses, showers and storms will build westward over the plains, pushing back to the KLHX area by the early AM hours and possibly back to the I-25 corridor towards sunrise. The overall best chance of showers and storms later tonight will be generally east of a line from KLHX to Kim. Tomorrow morning it should be overcast over all of the southeast plains. IT should remain dry over the mtns. /Hodanish && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 317 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 Wednesday: A cold front will have passed on Tuesday which will leave a post frontal airmass over southern Colorado for Wednesday. The result will be high temperatures roughly 15F lower than the normal for this time of year for the eastern plains with values in the 60s and 70s. The mountain valleys will not get the full effects of the passing cold front, but the upper Arkansas River Valley will be in the low 70s and the San Luis Valley will be in the upper 70s to low 80s. The surface flow will be from the northeast across the plains, which is an upslope flow regime for the eastern mountains and south of Highway 50 - this will aid in stratiform rain over the plains. In my AFD from last night I stated that there may be some instability leading to embedded thunderstorms unless the temperatures continued to trend downward - at this point I am confident enough to say that convection should stay away from the plains on Wednesday, however, some rumbles of thunder are expected over the mountains. Thursday: The cool temperatures do not last long - Thursday returns to the 90s over the plains and the upper 70s to 80s over the mountains valleys. Instability also returns, as well, with roughly 1000 J/kg of CAPE over the mountains and over northern El Paso County. Currently the main lifting mechanism will be a weak shortwave passing over the region, but convection initiation will be focused over the topography. There may be some heavy raining thunderstorms over the mountains, so the Decker and the Spring burn scars will have to be monitored. All of this is associated with a big surge of Gulf of Mexico moisture - this moisture will last through the weekend. PWAT values are around 100-150% over the plains throughout the day on Thursday, but the mountains and mountain valleys reach around 200% of normal. Friday through Monday The PWAT values mentioned in Thursday`s period increases over the mountain and mountain valleys with up to 300% of normal during the morning and the afternoon on Friday. There is a wave passing overhead, so the anomalously high PWAT values and reasonable lift overhead may create some heavy raining thunderstorms over the mountains - flash flooding will need to be monitored over the mountains on Friday. The lift, at this point in time, is confined over the mountain and mountain valleys, leaving the plains dry. Weak riding aloft will inhibit widespread convection from Saturday through Monday, but isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the region as a weak wave embedded in the upper level ridge passes overhead. Perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible, particularly on Sunday. The 100s return to the plains early next week, whereas the mountain valleys will reach the upper 80s to low 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024 KALS: VFR conditions are expected through 24 hours, with gusty southwest winds to around 25 knots this afternoon. Mid level clouds will increase overnight towards the end of this forecast period. KCOS and KPUB: Gusty winds this afternoon will shift between easterly and southeasterly throughout the afternoon, with mid-level clouds slowly increasing. Overnight tonight, winds will turn more easterly and the upslope will bring in more cloud cover, with low stratus blanketing the area by morning. Along with this, widespread rain showers are expected, starting between 10-12Z and lasting for several hours. Once the rain departs, the clouds are expected to remain through the end of the period. While rain is not currently expected to lower visibility much, cloud ceilings will waver between low MVFR and IFR conditions. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ224. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO