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FXUS65 KPUB 021025
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
425 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Severe thunderstorms possible far eastern plains this
   afternoon through early evening with large hail and damaging
   winds the primary risks.

 - Critical fire weather conditions increase for the mountains,
   though fuels in green up phase should mitigate fire danger
   risks.

 - Mostly dry conditions expected for much of the upcoming
   week, with hot temperatures for much of the region as well.

 - Rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase for the end of
   the week and start of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Stratus has developed early this morning across portions of eastern
El Paso county and the far eastern plains.  Have updated grids to
reflect this. Already seeing drier air across the mountains spread
down into the adjacent I-25 corridor early this morning, especially
at K4V1. Dampening shortwave trough out west will move across CO
today mixing the low level moisture out across the adjacent plains
with time.  High res models indicate an early start to convection
this afternoon given the earlier timing of forcing with the
shortwave.  Best chance for severe storms will be along and east of
the dry line extending from roughly Pritchett to Eads around 20-21z.
East of the dry line HREF members show mean CAPE values up to 1500
J/kg, with ensemble Max Cape up to 2000 J/kg or a little more near
the border. Deep layer shears look on the weak side (around 20-30
kts)...so this looks to be primarily a CAPE driven severe threat
with initial robust updrafts (if low level moisture holds in)
capable of producing hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter and wind
gusts around 60 mph. Thunderstorms develop into a line or several
broken lines before pushing east into KS between 00z-01z at the
latest.

West of the dry line, gusty winds, soaring temperatures and low
humidity values will increase critical fire weather concerns.
However given that fuels are deemed not critical by land management
agencies due to green up, no fire weather highlights appear
necessary at this point.  However this will be the beginning of a
warmer and drier period for southern CO.  Didn`t stray too far from
model blends for high temperatures today.  Did cool them down for
some of the normal colder valley spots as dry surface dew points and
mostly clear skies should allow for another night of good
radiational cooling. -KT

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday - Thursday: For much of the upcoming week, relatively quiet
weather is expected for south central and southeastern Colorado.
Early in the week, westerly flow will prevail, with then
northwesterly flow developing by midweek as a ridge of high pressure
builds across the four corners region. Given the lack of major
forcing with this pattern, dry conditions are anticipated for much
of the area. The exception to this will be along the mountains,
where weak orographic forcing will help initiate isolated
showers each afternoon, particularly for Wednesday and Thursday.
This pattern will also bring the heat, with some of the hottest
temperatures so far this year expected. Much of the area will
warm well above seasonal values for early June, with the hottest
temperatures likely midweek.

Friday - Saturday: For the end of the week and start of the weekend,
an uptick in active weather is anticipated for the area.
Northwesterly flow will continue over south central and southeast
Colorado as the ridge remains in place to the west. However, higher
moisture content will start to return to the region. While
major synoptic forcing will still be lacking, the ongoing
orographic forcing in combination with the increasing moisture
will allow for more scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to
develop over the area each day. And while details are still hazy
at the moment, some thunderstorms that move across the plains
could be strong given the rise in expected instability with the
increasing moisture. As for temperatures, a cool down is
anticipated with the wetter pattern, with temperatures falling
back to around and slightly above seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 419 AM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

MVFR cigs should stay to the east of KCOS this morning with all 3
TAF sites seeing clear skies and light winds.  Winds will increase
from the southwest at all three terminals between 18 and 21z with
gusts to around 25-30 kts possible.  Some mid level convective cloud
cover will develop this afternoon, but thunderstorm risk at the
terminals in nil today.  Winds will diminish this evening and shift
from the north around 10-15 kts tonight at KCOS and KPUB along and
behind a cold front which should move through both terminals between
02z and 05z.  KCOS could see some brief gusts to 25 kts with
the frontal passage this evening before winds decrease overnight into
early Monday morning. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT