986
FXUS65 KPUB 112357
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
557 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms this afternoon will move southeast over the
   plains.

 - Temperatures getting hot, rising to 10F above normal over
   the plains.

 - Mostly dry for portions of the midweek period, with hot
   temperatures expected, especially Thursday.

 - Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage Friday, with
   the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening.

 - Heat and drier conditions start to return for the weekend
   and start of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Currently...

Scattered storms were noted over the region this afternoon. popcorn
activity was noted over the Palmer Divide region along with
scattered storms over the mountains, especially south of US50.
Otherwise, skies were mostly clear over the region. SPC meso page
was showing some CAPE values around 1500 over the region along with
25 knts of deep shear.

Rest of today into tonight...

Given the shear and CAPE, we may see one or two strong storms over
the region later today. CAMS continue to indicate that the best
chance of stronger storms will occur from roughly Canon City and
then move southeast towards eastern Las Animas county. Other more
isolated storms will be possible over the rest of the region. Given
the convective parameters in place, we may see a marginally severe
storm or two over the plains later this afternoon into the early
evening hours. By mid evening, storms should dissipate as heating
decreases.

Later tonight, clear skies are expected with min temps in the 50s
and L60s plains, 40s valleys and 30s and 40s mtns.

Tomorrow...

Getting Hot! With warmer air moving in at mid levels, temperatures
tomorrow will rise to around 100F over the lower Ark River valleys
rom roughly PUB out to the KS border, with upper 90s over most of
the rest of the plains (with L90s El Paso county). San Luis Valley
should see highs in the mid 80s. These values are running about 10F
above normal.

As for precip, only isolated high based storms will be possible,
with the activity forming over the mtns/plains interface and then
moving east and likely dying off. Overall, the big weather story
tomorrow is the heat. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Wednesday Night - Thursday: For a portion of the midweek period,
relatively quiet weather is anticipated for south central and
southeastern Colorado. A ridge of high pressure will be in place
just to south of the region, with the northern periphery of this
feature over the area. Given the increased descent with this
feature, dry conditions are expected for much of the area. The
exception to this will be isolated light showers and weak
thunderstorms over the mountains each afternoon and early evening,
though as diurnal instability wanes each evening, any precipitation
is expected to dissipate by mid to late evening each period. As for
temperatures, the heat continues. Temperatures will be cooling down
Wednesday evening after another well above seasonal afternoon
Wednesday. Temperatures Thursday though are anticipated to be even
hotter for much of the region, with near to possibly record setting
daily max temperatures Thursday. The hottest temperatures Thursday
will be across the plains, with high confidence (60-79%) in
widespread 100+F temperatures.

Friday: For the end of the week, an uptick in active weather is
expected for the area. A compact short wave is still anticipated to
eject across the region to the NE during Friday, and quickly exit
through Friday night. This feature will bring an increase in
forcing, and bring an uptick in moisture. With the rise in forcing
and moisture, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for
much of the area, especially along and east of the I- 25 corridor.
The greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated
late Friday afternoon and early evening, with most precipitation
dissipating through Friday evening and night. Along with that, given
the increase in moisture and support from the wave, a strong
thunderstorm or two is possible during the day, with gusty winds and
hail the primary hazards. As for temperatures, some minor relief is
in store for much of the area, with temperatures falling, but still
remaining above seasonal values.

Saturday - Monday: For the weekend and start of next week,
relatively quiet weather returns to south central and southeastern
Colorado. As the shortwave from Friday exits the area, westerly to
southwesterly flow will prevail. While no major forcing is expected
with this pattern, orographic forcing will continue. Given this,
isolated to widely scattered light showers and weak thunderstorms
are expected along the mountains each afternoon, though should
quickly dissipate during the evening hours as instability lessens.
Looking at temperatures, heat sticks around for most of the region.
Above seasonal temperatures will persist for much of the area, with
Sunday and Monday being the warmest days of this period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 544 PM MDT Tue Jun 11 2024

VFR conditions anticipated at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours. Storms across the I-25 corridor to continue to push east
through the early evening, with clearing skies and dirurnal wind
regimes expected through the overnight hours. There may be a few
high based showers over and near the higher terrain Wednesday
afternoon, however will not include in tafs attm.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW